Attack Politics in Presidential Nomination Campaigns: An Examination of the Frequency and Determinants of Intermediated Negative Messages Against Opponents

Abstract

This article explores the negative campaign messages made by presi dential nomination candidates on their opponents. Using a compilation of national and state media accounts of candidate attack activity from the 1992 Democratic nomination race, we seek to answer the questions -- are the intermediated attacks made by presidential nomination candidates random events or are they predictable consequences of measurable vari ables ? Moreover, when candidates attack, who is their likely target? We find that intermediated candidate attacks can be predicted based on a number of conditions. Among these conditions are competitive position ing, reward factors and media-related conditions. Moreover, the general foci of attacks appear to be limited to attacking those who are competi tively in the top tier. Attacks vary both in their frequency and in their nature depending on the competitive stage of the campaign. The system atic evaluation of these opponent-focused negative messages and their role in candidate strategy and voter evaluation is important for under standing presidential nomination politics and strategic communication in elections in general.