Fund-raising in Presidential Nomination Campaigns: The Primary Lessons of 1988

Abstract

This article presents an exploratory analysis of the flow of funds raised in American presidential nomination campaigns. Using detailed financial data for all the major party candidates in the 1988 presidential contest, we ex plicate and test two rival models of fund-raising: A "campaign-driven" model, which ties the fund-raising success to performance in the cam paign itself, often in the form of momentum; and an "organization-driven" model, which ties it to the quality of candidates' political bases and fund raising efforts. We find much more support for the latter model. Most can didates' funds are raised before the start of the primary season; the patterns of fund-raising remain largely stable even during the primary season; and variations are largely a function of fund-raising efforts rather than poll stand ings, campaign events, or even primary/caucus performance. Though spe cific primaries and caucuses do sometimes affect fund-raising, the impact is typically modest and short-lived. These findings suggest that at least under current campaign conditions, candidates should give priority to building fund-raising organizations rather than relying on campaign per formance to provide monetary momentum.