The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference?

Abstract

This research addresses two questions of current interest in American po litics : Does divided government reduce accountability? Do voters reward or punish incumbent governors and/or their parties on the basis of state economic performance? A multivariate pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of aggregate election outcomes from 1972-91 in forty-three states reveals that the effect of state unemployment on the incumbent guber natorial party's vote percentage is greatly enhanced when the governor's party controls both chambers of the state legislature. This evidence is con sistent with the claim made by responsible party theorists that voters are more able and/or willing to reward or punish a political party when that party's responsibility for government performance is complete.