Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986

Abstract

Aggregate-level studies of gubernatorial elections suggest that the state's economy is not a significant determinant of gubernatorial vote choice These findings run counter to expectations of retrospective voting behavior Gover nors today serve longer terms, have greater institutional powers, and are more publicly visible-all of which suggest that governors should be held accountable by the voters. The expectation is that individual-level studies, which measure voters' perceptions of the state's economy, will show a strong relationship between the state's economy and gubernatorial vote choice. Analysis of the 1982 and 1986 CBS/NY Times Exit Polls demonstrates that voters' evaluations of the state's economy have a significant impact on vote choice.