Reward Without Punishment: Economic Conditions and the Vote

Abstract

It is often suggested that voter dissatisfaction is a more important determi nant of behavior than satisfaction. In the familiar terms of economic voting this negativity bias implies that voters are more likely to punish than reward incumbents for the status of the economy. However, economic conditions affect not only how people vote but whether they vote, such that during periods of poor economic performance much of the public resentment toward the in-party is absorbed by abstention (Rosenstone 1982). Thus, the impact of recession is muted by the reduced propensity of those suf fering its effects to actually vote Given this fact, it appears that the presi dent's party is more consistently rewarded for its economic successes than it is punished for its failures.