In examining public evaluations of governing institutions, are job approval and legitimacy related? This question has dominated scholarship on Supreme Court legitimacy for decades. Conventional wisdom suggests that specific support (e.g., job approval) and diffuse support (e.g., legitimacy) are independent. Specific support captures short-term orientations based on policy alignment with the Court. Legitimacy is a long-term perspective reflecting more fundamental support for the Court as a governing institution. We challenge the paradigm that job approval and legitimacy are largely unrelated concepts. Specifically, we employ a variety of statistical techniques and panel data to show that changes in legitimacy are a direct effect of changes in public approval. Salient decisions and Court vacancies directly shape approval and indirectly shape legitimacy through their effects on approval. Longitudinal analysis confirms that changes in job approval precede and predict changes in legitimacy. These results suggest that the Court needs public approval, and its public approval is rooted in outcome-oriented perceptions of its decisions and membership. Further, sustained low levels of approval will eventually erode legitimacy and limit the Court's influence over policy. Thus, like the outwardly political executive and legislative branches, it is important for the Court to build political capital through job approval.
AlgaraCarlos. 2023. “Congressional Approval and Responsible Party Government: The Role of Partisanship and Ideology in Citizen Assessments of the Contemporary US Congress.” Political Behavior45 (1): 33–73.
2.
AngZoeReevesAndrewRogowskiJon C.VishwanathArjun. 2022. “Partisanship, Economic Assessments, and Presidential Accountability.” American Journal of Political Science66 (2): 468–84.
3.
AnsolabehereStephen D.WhiteAriel. 2020. “Policy, Politics, and Public Attitudes toward the Supreme Court.” American Politics Research48 (3): 365–76.
4.
ArmalyMile T.2018a. “Extra-Judicial Actor Induced Change in Supreme Court Legitimacy.” Political Research Quarterly71 (3): 600–613.
5.
ArmalyMile T.2018b. “Politicized Nominations and Public Attitudes toward the Supreme Court in the Polarization Era.” Justice System Journal39 (3): 193–209.
6.
ArmalyMile T.LaneElizabeth A.. 2023. “Politicized Battles: How Vacancies and Partisanship Influence Support for the Supreme Court.” American Politics Research51 (1): 23–36.
7.
BadasAlex. 2019. “The Applied Legitimacy Index: A New Approach to Measuring Judicial Legitimacy.” Social Science Quarterly100 (5): 1848–61.
8.
BartelsBrandon L.JohnstonChristopher D.. 2013. “On the Ideological Foundations of Supreme Court Legitimacy in the American Public.” American Journal of Political Science57 (1): 184–99.
9.
BartelsBrandon L.JohnstonChristopher D.. 2020. Curbing the Court: Why the Public Constrains Judicial Independence. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
10.
BartelsBrandon L.KramonEric. 2022. “All the President’s Justices? The Impact of Presidential Copartisanship on Supreme Court Job Approval.” American Journal of Political Science66 (1): 171–86.
11.
BartelsBrandon L.MutzDiana C.. 2009. “Explaining Processes of Institutional Opinion Leadership.” The Journal of Politics71 (1): 249–61.
12.
BostonJoshuaHomolaJonathanSinclairBetsyTorresMichelleTuckerPatrick D.. 2018. “The Dynamic Relationship between Personality Stability and Political Attitudes.” Public Opinion Quarterly82 (S1): 843–65.
13.
BrodyRichard. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford University Press.
14.
BryanAmanda C.KromphardtChristopher D.. 2016. “Public Opinion, Public Support, and Counter-attitudinal Voting on the US Supreme Court.” Justice System Journal37 (4): 298–317.
15.
CaldeiraGregory AGibsonJames L. 1992. “The Etiology of Public Support for the Supreme Court.” American Journal of Political Science: 635–64.
ChristensonDino P.GlickDavid M.. 2015. “Chief Justice Roberts’s Health Care Decision Disrobed: The Microfoundations of the Supreme Court’s Legitimacy.” American Journal of Political Science59 (2): 403–18.
18.
ChristensonDino P.GlickDavid M.. 2019. “Reassessing the Supreme Court: How Decisions and Negativity Bias Affect Legitimacy.” Political Research Quarterly72 (3): 637–52.
19.
ClarkTom S.2009. “The Separation of Powers, Court Curbing, and Judicial Legitimacy.” American Journal of Political Science53 (4): 971–89.
20.
CollinsPaul M.RinghandLori A.. 2013. Supreme Court Confirmation Hearings and Constitutional Change. Cambridge University Press.
21.
CollinsTodd A.CooperChristopher A.. 2016. “The Case Salience Index, Public Opinion, and Decision Making on the US Supreme Court.” Justice System Journal37 (3): 232–45.
22.
ConversePhilip E.2006. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics (1964).” Critical Review18 (1–3): 1–74.
23.
DenisonAlexanderJustinWedekingZilisMichael A.. 2020. “Negative Media Coverage of the Supreme Court: The Interactive Role of Opinion Language, Coalition Size, and Ideological Signals.” Social Science Quarterly101 (1): 121–43.
24.
DonovanKathleenKellstedtPaul M.KeyEllen M.LeboMatthew J.. 2020. “Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval.” Political Behavior42: 1201–21.
25.
DurrRobert H.GilmourJohn B.WolbrechtChristina. 1997. “Explaining Congressional Approval.” American Journal of Political Science41(1): 175–207.
26.
EdwardsGeorge C.1976. “Presidential Influence in the House: Presidential Prestige as a Source of Presidential Power.” American Political Science Review70 (1): 101–13.
27.
EpsteinLeeSegalJeffrey A.. 2000. “Measuring Issue Salience.” American Journal of Political Science44(1): 66–83.
28.
FerejohnJohn. 1986. “Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control.” Public Choice50(1): 5–25.
29.
FontanaDavidKrewsonChristopher N.. 2023. “The Costs of Policy Legitimation: A Test of the Political Capital Hypothesis.” Journal of Law and Courts11 (2): 277–89.
GerberAlan S.HuberGregory A.. 2010. “Partisanship, Political Control, and Economic Assessments.” American Journal of Political Science54 (1): 153–73.
32.
GibsonJames L.CaldeiraGregory A.. 2009. Citizens, Courts, and Confirmations: Positivity Theory and the Judgments of the American People. Princeton, NJ, USA: Princeton University Press.
33.
GibsonJames L.CaldeiraGregory A.. 2011. “Has Legal Realism Damaged the Legitimacy of the US Supreme Court?” Law and Society Review45 (1): 195–219.
34.
GibsonJames L.CaldeiraGregory A.SpenceLester Kenyatta. 2003. “Measuring Attitudes toward the United States Supreme Court.” American Journal of Political Science47 (2): 354–67.
35.
GibsonJames L.CaldeiraGregory A.SpenceLester Kenyatta. 2005. “Why Do People Accept Public Policies They Oppose? Testing Legitimacy Theory with a Survey-Based Experiment.” Political Research Quarterly58 (2): 187–201.
36.
GibsonJames L.NelsonMichael J.. 2015. “Is the US Supreme Court’s Legitimacy Grounded in Performance Satisfaction and Ideology?” American Journal of Political Science59 (1): 162–74.
37.
GronkePaulNewmanBrian. 2003. “FDR to Clinton, Mueller to? A Field Essay on Presidential Approval.” Political Research Quarterly56 (4): 501–12.
38.
HaglinKathrynJordanSorenHiggins MerrillAlisonJosephUraDaniel. 2021. “Ideology and Specific Support for the Supreme Court.” Political Research Quarterly74 (4): 955–69.
39.
HamakerEllen LKuiperRebecca M.GrasmanRaoul PPP.. 2015. “A Critique of the Cross-Lagged Panel Model.” Psychological Methods20 (1): 102.
40.
HawdonJames. 2008. “Legitimacy, Trust, Social Capital, and Policing Styles: A Theoretical Statement.” Police Quarterly11 (2): 182–201.
41.
HealyAndrewMalhotraNeil. 2013. “Retrospective Voting Reconsidered.” Annual Review of Political Science16: 285–306.
42.
JohnstonChristopher D.HillygusD SunshineBartelsBrandon L.. 2014. “Ideology, the Affordable Care Act Ruling, and Supreme Court Legitimacy.” Public Opinion Quarterly78 (4): 963–73.
43.
KernellSamuel. 1977. “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President’s Party.” American Political Science Review71 (1): 44–66.
44.
KrewsonChristopher N.2023. “Political Hearings Reinforce Legal Norms: Confirmation Hearings and Views of the United States Supreme Court.” Political Research Quarterly76 (1): 418–31.
45.
KrinerDouglasSchwartzLiam. 2009. “Partisan Dynamics and the Volatility of Presidential Approval.” British Journal of Political Science39 (3): 609–31.
46.
LaneElizabeth A.SchoenherrJessica A.. 2024. “Hidden Successes: Briefs, Oral Arguments, and Gender Roles at the U.S. Supreme Court.”
47.
Lewis-BeckMichael S.StegmaierMary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science3 (1): 183–219.
48.
MacKuenMichael B.EriksonRobert S.JamesStimson A.. 1996. “Presidents and the Prospective Year: Comment.” The Journal of Politics58 (3): 793–801.
MichelitchKristinMoralesMarcoOwenAndrewTuckerJoshua A. 2012. “Looking to the Future: Prospective Economic Voting in 2008 Presidential Elections.” Electoral Studies31 (4): 838–51.
51.
MulderJeroen D.HamakerEllen L.. 2021. “Three Extensions of the Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model.” Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal28 (4): 638–48.
52.
NelsonMichael J.TuckerPatrick D.. 2021. “The Stability and Durability of the US Supreme Court’s Legitimacy.” The Journal of Politics83 (2): 767–71.
53.
NewmanBrianForcehimesAndrew. 2010. “‘Rally Round the Flag’ Events for Presidential Approval Research.” Electoral Studies29 (1): 144–54.
54.
NewmanBrianOttoAmber. 2022. “Polls and Elections: The Economy and Events Still Matter (At Least a Little): Partisans’ Presidential Approval in the Trump Era.” Presidential Studies Quarterly52 (1): 208–23.
55.
NewportFrankSaadLydia. 2021. “Presidential Job Approval.” Public Opinion Quarterly85 (1): 223–41.
56.
PoppElizabethRudolphThomas J.. 2011. “A Tale of Two Ideologies: Explaining Public Support for Economic Interventions.” The Journal of Politics73 (3): 808–20.
SunshineJasonTylerTom R.. 2003. “The Role of Procedural Justice and Legitimacy in Shaping Public Support for Policing.” Law and Society Review37 (3): 513–47.
61.
TuckerPatrick D.MontgomeryJacob M.SmithSteven S.. 2019. “Party Identification in the Age of Obama: Evidence on the Sources of Stability and Systematic Change in Party Identification from a Long-Term Panel Survey.” Political Research Quarterly72 (2): 309–28.
62.
TylerTom R.2006. “Psychological Perspectives on Legitimacy and Legitimation.” Annu. Rev. Psychol57: 375–400.
63.
UraJoseph Daniel. 2014. “Backlash and Legitimation: Macro Political Responses to Supreme Court Decisions.” American Journal of Political Science58 (1): 110–26.
64.
UsamiSatoshi. 2021. “On the Differences between General Cross-Lagged Panel Model and Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model: Interpretation of Cross-Lagged Parameters and Model Choice.” Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal28 (3): 331–44.
65.
UsamiSatoshiMurayamaKouHamakerEllen L.. 2019. “A Unified Framework of Longitudinal Models to Examine Reciprocal Relations.” Psychological Methods24 (5): 637.
66.
ZilisMichael A.2015. The Limits of Legitimacy: Dissenting Opinions, Media Coverage, and Public Responses to Supreme Court Decisions. Ann Arbor, MI, USA: University of Michigan Press.
67.
ZilisMichael A.2021. The Rights Paradox: How Group Attitudes Shape US Supreme Court Legitimacy. New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
