Who Wants to Raise Taxes?

Abstract

We test hypotheses about individual-level (partisanship and self-interest) and state-level (tax policy) factors that may shape public attitudes about raising taxes. Respondents were given a scenario where a state budget needed to be balanced with spending cuts or tax increases, and a scenario where either state sales or state income taxes would be increased. We find partisanship, ideology, and self-interest had substantial relationships with how people responded. Democrats, liberals, and those with fewer resources preferred tax increases over spending cuts, and preferred income tax increases over sales tax increases. Republicans (particularly wealthy Republicans), conservatives, and those with more resources preferred spending cuts to tax increases, and preferred sales tax increases over income tax increases. We also find income tax increases and higher tax burdens may correspond with preferences for cutting spending rather than raising taxes, but variation in the rates of a particular tax was not associated with attitudes about raising that tax. Our results suggest an electorate that may be somewhat more sophisticated about fiscal policy than what has been portrayed in several influential studies.