Theories of presidential success find that political disunity reduces the President’s effectiveness by restricting his authority to generate new policies. We maintain that focusing solely on policy change neglects the influence exerted by the President when he defends his policy agenda by preventing unfavorable changes to the status quo. We develop a new theory of presidential success that predicts that certain political environments raise the resource costs to the President of policy change. During these times, the President shifts political resources to defending the status quo. We empirically test our predictions in both legislative and regulatory lawmaking, and find strong support for our theory.
AdlerE. ScottWilkersonJohn. n.d. Congressional Bills Project (1951-2006). NSF 00880066 and 00880061. The views expressed are those of the authors and not the National Science Foundation. http://congressionalbills.org/index.html.
3.
BaileyMichael A.2007. “Comparable Preference Estimates across Time and Institutions for the Court, Congress, and Presidency.” American Journal of Political Science51:433–48.
4.
BallaSteven J. J.WrightJohn R.2001. “Interest Groups, Advisory Committees, and Congressional Control of the Bureaucracy.” American Journal of Political Science45:799–812.
5.
BarrettAndrew W.Eshbaugh-SohaMatthew. 2007. “Presidential Success on the Substance of Legislation.” Political Research Quarterly60:100–12.
6.
BawnKathleen. 1997. “Choosing Strategies to Control the Bureaucracy: Statutory Constraints, Oversight, and the Committee System.” Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization13:101–26.
7.
BeckmannMatthew N.2008. “The President’s Playbook: White House Strategies for Lobbying Congress.” Journal of Politics70:407–19.
8.
BeckmannMatthew N.GodfreyJoseph. 2007. “The Policy Opportunities in Presidential Honeymoons.” Political Research Quarterly60:250–62.
9.
BinderSarah A.1999. “The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock, 1947-96.” American Political Science Review93:519–33.
10.
BinderSarah A.2003. Stalemate: Causes and Consequences of Legislative Gridlock. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
11.
BinderSarah A.2008. “Taking the Measure of Congress: Reply to Chiou and Rothenberg.” Political Analysis16:213–25.
12.
BondJon R.FleisherRichard. 1990. The President in the Legislative Arena. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
13.
BondJon R.FleisherRichardWoodB. Dan. 2003. “The Marginal and Time-Varying Effect of Public Approval on Presidential Success in Congress.” Journal of Politics64:92–110.
14.
BracePaulHinckleyBarbara. 1992. Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and the Modern Presidents. New York: Basic Books.
15.
CameronCharles M.2000. Veto Bargaining: Presidents and the Politics of Negative Power. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
16.
Canes-WroneBrandicede MarchiScott. 2002. “Presidential Approval and Legislative Success.” Journal of Politics64:491–509.
CooperJosephWestWilliam. 1988. “Presidential Power and Republican Government: The Theory and Practice and OMB Review of Agency Rules.” Journal of Politics50:864–95.
21.
CoxGary W.McCubbinsMatthew D.1993. Legislative Leviathan. Berkley: University of California Press.
22.
CoxGary W.McCubbinsMatthew D.2005. Setting the Agenda. New York: Cambridge University Press.
23.
DomkeDavidGrahamErica S.CoeKevinJohnSue L.CoopmanTed. 2006. “Going Public as a Political Strategy: The Bush Administration, an Echoing Press, and the Passage of the Patriot Act.” Political Communication23:291–312.
24.
EdwardsGeorge C.III. 1983. The Public Presidency: The Pursuit of Popular Support. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
25.
EdwardsGeorge C.III. 1989. At the Margins: Presidential Leadership of Congress. New Haven: Yale University Press.
26.
EdwardsGeorge C.III. 1997. “Aligning Tests with Theory: Presidential Approval as a Source of Influence in Congress.” Congress and the Presidency97:113–31.
27.
EdwardsGeorge C.IIIBarrettAndrew. 2000. “Presidential Agenda Setting in Congress.” In Polarized Politics, edited by BondJonFleisherRichard,pp. 109-33.Washington, DC: CQ Press.
28.
EdwardsGeorge C.IIIBarrettAndrewPeakeJeffrey. 1997. “The Legislative Impact of Divided Government.” American Journal of Political Science41:545–63.
29.
Eshbaugh-SohaMatthew. 2010. “The Importance of Policy Scope to Presidential Success in Congress.” Presidential Studies Quarterly40:708–24.
30.
“Executive Order 12291—Federal Regulation.” 1981. 46 FR 13193.
31.
“Executive Order 12866—Regulatory Planning and Review.” 1993. 58 FR 51735.
32.
FarnsworthStephen J.2009. Spinner in Chief: How Presidents Sell Their Policies and Themselves. Boulder: Paradigm.
33.
FerejohnJohnShipanCharles. 1990. “Congressional Influence on Bureaucracy.” Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization6:1–20.
34.
FleisherRichardBondJon. 2000. “Partisanship in the President’s Quest for Votes on the Floor of Congress.” In Polarized Politics, edited by BondJonFleisherRichard, pp.154-85. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
35.
GrossmanMichael B.KumarMartha J.RourkeFrancis E.1998. “Second-Term Presidencies: The Aging of Administrations.” In The Presidency & the Political System, edited by NelsonMichael, 5th ed., pp. 207-25. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
36.
HeithDiane J.2013. The Presidential Roadshow: Public Leadership in an Era of Party Polarization and Media Fragmentation. Boulder: Paradigm.
37.
HerrnsonPaul S.MorrisIrwinMcTagueJohn. 2011. “The Impact of Presidential Campaigning for Congress on Presidential Support in the U.S. House of Representatives.” Legislative Studies Quarterly36:99–122.
38.
HetheringtonMarc J.LarsonBruce A.2010. Parties, Politics, and Public Policy in America. 11th ed.Washington, DC: CQ Press.
39.
HowellWilliam. 2003. Power without Persuasion: The Politics of Direct Presidential Action. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
40.
KelleyChristopher S.MarshallBryan W.2008. “The Last Word: Presidential Power and the Role of Signing Statements.” Presidential Studies Quarterly38:248–67.
41.
KrehbielKeith. 1998. Pivotal Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
42.
LongJ. ScottFreeseJeremy. 2006. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. 2nd ed.College Station: Stata Press.
43.
MacDonaldJason A.2010. “Limitation Riders and Congressional Influence over Bureaucratic Policy Decisions.” American Political Science Review104:766–82.
44.
MayhewDavid R.1991. Divided We Govern: Party Control, Lawmaking, and Investigations, 1946-1990. New Haven: Yale University Press.
45.
MayhewDavid R.2005. Divided We Govern. 2nd ed.New Haven: Yale University Press.
46.
McCubbinsMathew D.NollRoger G.WeingastBarry R.1987. “Administrative Procedures as Instruments of Political Control.” Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization3:243–77.
47.
McCubbinsMathew D.NollRoger G.WeingastBarry R.1989. “Structure and Process, Politics and Policy: Administrative Arrangements and the Political Control of Agencies.” Virginia Law Review75:431–82.
48.
MoeTerry. 1985. “Control and Feedback in Economic Regulation: The Case of the NLRB.” American Political Science Review79:1094–116.
49.
MouwCalvinMacKuenMichael. 1992. “The Strategic Configuration, Personal Influence, and Presidential Power in Congress.” Western Political Quarterly45:579–608.
50.
NeustadtRichard. 1960. Presidential Power. New York: John Wiley.
51.
OstromCharles W.SimonDennis M.1985. “Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity.” American Political Science Review79:334–58.
52.
PetersonDavid A. M.GrossbackLawrence J.StimsonJames A.GanglAmy. 2003. “Congressional Response to Mandate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science47:411–26.
53.
PfiffnerJames A.1988. The Strategic Presidency: Hitting the Ground Running. Chicago: Dorsey.
54.
PooleKeith T.1998. “Estimating a Basic Space from a Set of Issue Scales.” American Journal of Political Science42:954–93.
55.
Rabe-HeskethSophiaSkrondalAnders. 2008. Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. 2nd ed.College Station: Stata Press.
56.
Rabe-HeskethSophiaSkrondalAnders. 2012. Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. Vol. II: Categorical Responses, Counts, and Survival. 3rd ed.College Station: Stata Press.
57.
RottinghausBrandonMaierJason. 2007. “The Power of Decree: The President’s Use of Executive Proclamations, 1977-2005.” Political Research Quarterly60:338–43.
58.
ShipanCharles. 2004. “Regulatory Regimes, Agency Actions, and the Conditional Nature of Congressional Influence.” American Political Science Review9:467–80.
59.
TreierShawn. 2010. “Where Does the President Stand? Measuring Presidential Ideology.” Political Analysis18:124–36.
60.
TsebelisGeorgeMoneyJeannette. 1997. Bicameralism. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
61.
WhitfordAndrew. 2005. “The Pursuit of Political Control by Multiple Principals.” Journal of Politics67:29–49.
62.
WoodB. DanWatermanRichard W.1991. “The Dynamics of Political Control of the Bureaucracy.” American Political Science Review85:801–28.
63.
WoodB. DanWatermanRichard W.1993. “The Dynamics of Political-Bureaucratic Adaptation.” American Journal of Political Science37:497–528.
64.
YackeeJ. WebbYackeeSusan W.2009. “Divided Government and U.S. Federal Rulemaking.” Regulation & Governance3:128–44.
