Most researchers studying presidential approval with time series analysis assume that foreign and economic policy have a time-invariant weight in citizens’ judgments of presidential performance. However, those studying presidential approval in cross-sectional analysis find that the weight of foreign and economic policy on job performance fluctuates as news about these issues changes. These competing views can be incorporated into a model of rational learning that makes it possible to test whether the public weighs foreign and economic policy differently over time in its evaluation of the president. The analysis presented here shows that foreign and economic policy exhibit different patterns in their relationship to overall approval—economic policy has a consistent impact over time, while foreign policy ebbs and flows.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Baker, William D., and John R. Oneal. 2001. “Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?: The Nature and Origins of the “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect. Journal of Conflict Resolution45: 661-687.
2.
Beck, Nathaniel. 1983. “Time Varying Parameter Regression Models.”American Journal of Political Science27: 557-600.
3.
Brody, Richard A.1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
4.
Clarke, Harold D., and Marianne C. Stewart. 1994. “Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The ‘Bankers’ Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered.”American Journal of Political Science38: 1104-1123.
5.
Cuthbertson, Keith, Stephen G. Hall, and Mark P. Taylor. 1992. Applied Econometric Techniques. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
6.
Druckman, James N. and Justin W. Holmes. 2004. “Does Presidential Rhetoric Matter? Priming and Presidential Approval.”Presidential Studies Quarterly34: 755-779.
7.
Edwards, George C. III. 2003. On Deaf Ears: The Limits of the Bully Pulpit. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
8.
Edwards, George C. III with Alec Gallup. 1990. Presidential Approval: A Sourcebook. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
9.
Edwards, George C. III, William Mitchell, and Reed Welch. 1995. “Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Salience.”American Journal of Political Science39: 108-134.
10.
Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2000. “Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval.”Electoral Studies19: 295-312.
11.
Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
12.
Gerber, Alan, and Donald P. Green. 1998. “Rational Learning and Partisan Attitudes.”American Journal of Political Science42: 794-818.
13.
Gronke, Paul, and Brian Newman. 2003. “FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval. Political Research Quarterly56: 501-512.
14.
Harvey, Andrew C.1989. Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models, and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
15.
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1994. “Issues, Candidate Image, and Priming: The Use of Private Polls in Kennedy’s 1960 Presidential Campaign.”American Political Science Review88: 527-540.
16.
Kernell, Samuel H.1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity.”American Political Science Review72: 506-522.
17.
Kernell, Samuel H.1986. Going Public: New Strategies of Public Leadership. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
18.
Kim, Chang-Jin, and Charles R. Nelson. 1999. State-Space Models with Regime Switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
19.
Koopman, Siem Jan, Neil Shepard, and Jurgen Doornik. 1998. “Statistical Algorithms for Models of State Space using SsfPack 2.2.”Econometrics Journal1: 1-55.
20.
Krosnick, Jon A., and Donald R. Kinder. 1990. “Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming.”American Political Science Review84: 497-512.
21.
Lowi, Theodore J.1985. The Personal President: Power Invested and Promise Unfulfilled. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
22.
MacKuen, Michael B.1983. “Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity. American Journal of Political Science27: 165-192.
23.
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erickson, and James A. Stimson. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.”American Political Science Review86: 597-611.
24.
Marra, Robin, Charles Ostrom Jr., Dennis M. Simon. 1990. “Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity: Creating Windows of Opportunity in the Perpetual Election.”Journal of Conflict Resolution34: 588-623.
25.
Mueller, John. 1973. War, Presidents and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.
26.
Nickelsburg, Michael, and Helmut Norpoth. 2000. “Commanderin-Chief or Chief Economist?: The President in the Public Eye.”Electoral Studies19: 313-332.
27.
Ostrom, Charles W., and Dennis M. Simon. 1985. “Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity.”American Political Science Review70: 334-358.
28.
Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
29.
Ragsdale, Lyn. 1998. Vital Statistics on the Presidency: Washington to Clinton. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
30.
Sargent, Thomas. 1993. Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
31.
Simon, Herbert. 1957. Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: Wiley.
32.
Stanley, Harold W., and Richard Niemi. 2000. Vital Statistics on American Politics, 1999-2000. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
33.
Stimson, James A.1999. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview.
34.
Wells, Curt. 1996. The Kalman Filter in Finance. Boston: Kluwer.
35.
Wilcox, Clyde, and Dee Allsop. 1991. “Economic and Foreign Policy as Sources of Reagan Support.”Western Political Quarterly44: 941-959.
36.
Wood, B. Dan. 2000. “Weak Theories and Parameter Instability: Using Flexible Least Squares to Take Time Varying Relationships Seriously.”American Journal of Political Science43: 603-618.
37.
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
