Explaining Recent Changes in the Partisan Identifications of Southern Whites

Abstract

Scholars of southern partisan change have been reluctant to proclaim a realignment among southern whites. Despite a Republican advantage in presidential elections, a Democratic advantage continued to persist in party identifications. However, in the 1990s a Republican advantage in party identifications emerged, one that has persisted throughout the decade. Indeed in 2000 a majority of southern whites held Republican party identifications, while only one in three southern whites held Democratic identifications. This article examines the causes of the changing party identifications of southern whites in the 1990s and focuses on four explanations that have been discussed by scholars: the role of racial attitudes, social class polarization, social and cultural attitudes and general ideological realignment. Using a multivariate analysis, the study finds that national forces, specifically an ideological realignment and class-status polarization played some role in producing changes in partisanship of southern whites. However, regional differences between the South and the rest of the nation remained evident, with racial attitudes and views on abortion exerting significant effects on party identifications in the 1990s. The findings suggest that the Republican advantage in party identifications that emerged in the 1990s is durable and, if anything, is likely to increase in future years.