This work explores the influence of gubernatorial coattails in state legislative elections. Through a district-level analysis conducted in nine states, I measure how party support for the governor affects the percentage of the vote received by candidates running for the legislature. Findings indicate that gubernatorial coattails do influence candidate vote margins, even when factors such as campaign spending, past party performance, and other district-level conditions are controlled. However, the magnitude of this effect is mitigated by candidacy status and the closeness of the gubernatorial election. Specifically, coattail effects are dampened by the presence of an incumbent, while their influence is enhanced in states with competitive gubernatorial elections.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Austin, Erik W., Jerome M. Clubb, William H. Flanigan, Peter Granda, and Nancy H. Zingale. 1991. “Electoral Participation in the United States, 1968-86.”Legislative Studies Quarterly16: 145-164.
2.
Berry, William D., Michael B. Berkman, and Stuart Schneiderman. 2000. “Legislative Professionalism and Incumbent Reelection: The Development of Institutional Boundaries.”American Political Science Review94 (December): 859-874.
3.
Beyle, Thad. 1999. “The Governors.” In Virginia Gray, Russell Hanson, and Herbert Jacob, eds., Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis, 7th ed.Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
4.
Bibby, John F.1983. “Patterns in Midterm Gubernatorial and State Legislative Elections.”Public Opinion6: 41-46.
5.
Born, Richard. 1984. “Reassessing the Decline of Presidential Coattails: U.S. House Elections from 1952-1980.”Journal of Politics46: 60-79.
6.
Caldeira, Gregory A., and Samuel C. Patterson. 1982. “Brining Home the Votes: Electoral Outcomes in State Legislative Races.”Political Behavior4: 33-67.
7.
Calvert, Randall L., and John A. Ferejohn. 1983. “Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections.”American Political Science Review77: 407-419.
8.
Campbell, James E.1986a. “Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails.”American Journal of Political Science30: 165-183.
9.
Campbell, James E.1986b. “Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections.”American Political Science Review80 (March): 45-64.
10.
Campbell, James E., and Joe A. Sumners. 1990. “Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections.”American Political Science Review84: 513-524.
11.
Carey, John M., Richard G. Niemi, and Lynda W. Powell. 2000. “Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections.”Journal of Politics62 (August): 671-700.
12.
Chubb, John E.1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.”American Political Science Review82 (March): 133-154.
13.
Citrin, Jack, Eric Schickler, and John Sides. 2003. “What if Everyone Vote? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections.”American Journal of Political Science47 (1): 75-90.
14.
Cox, Gary W., and Scott Morgenstern. 1993. “The Increasing Advantage of Incumbency in the U.S. States.”Legislative Studies Quarterly18: 495-514.
15.
DeNardo, James. 1980. “Turnout and the Vote: The Joke’s on the Democrats.”American Political Science Review74 (June): 406-420.
16.
Edwards, George. 1979. “The Impact of Presidential Coattails on Outcomes of Congressional Elections.”American Politics Quarterly7: 94-107.
17.
Elazar, Daniel J.1984. American Federalism: A View from the States, 3rd ed.New York: Harper and Row.
18.
Erikson, Robert S., Gerald C. Wright, and John P. McIver. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
19.
Ferejohn, John A., and Randall L. Calvert. 1984. “Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective.”American Journal of Political Science47: 127-146.
20.
Firebaugh, Glenn. 1988. “The Ratio Variables Hoax in Political Science.”American Journal of Political Science32: 523-535.
21.
Flemming, Gregory. 1995. “Presidential Coattails in Open-Seat Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly20: 197-211.
22.
Garand, James C.1991. “Electoral Marginality in State Legislative Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly16: 7-28.
23.
Gierzynski, Anthony. 1992. Legislative Party Campaign Committees in the American States. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.
24.
Gierzynski, Anthony, and David A. Breaux. 1991. “Money and Votes in State Legislative Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly16: 203-217.
25.
Gierzynski, Anthony, and David A. Breaux. 1996. “Legislative Elections and the Role of Money.”Legislative Studies Quarterly21: 337-357.
26.
Giles, Michael, and Anita Pritchard. 1985. “Campaign Spending and Legislative Elections in Florida.”Legislative Studies Quarterly10: 71-88.
27.
Hamm, Keith E., and Gary F. Moncrief. 1999. “Legislative Politics in the States.” In Virginia Gray, Russell Hanson, and Herbert Jacob, eds., Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis, 7th ed.Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
28.
Holbrook, Thomas M., and Emily Van Dunk. 1993. “Electoral Competition in the American States.”American Political Science Review87: 955-962.
29.
Jacobson, Gary C.1976. “Presidential Coattails in 1972.”Public Opinion Quarterly40: 194-200.
30.
Jacobson, Gary C.1997. The Politics of Congressional Elections, 4th ed.New York: Longman.
31.
Jewell, Malcolm, and David Breaux. 1988. “The Effects of Incumbency on State Legislative Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly13: 495-514.
32.
Kimball, David C., Chris T. Owens, and Matthew J. McLaughlin. 2002. “Straight Party Ballots in State Legislative Elections.”Spectrum: The Journal of State GovernmentFall: 26-28.
33.
Koetzle, William. 1998. “The Impact of Constituency Diversity upon the Competitiveness of U.S. House Elections, 1962-1996.”Legislative Studies Quarterly23 (4): 561-573.
34.
Kritzer, Herbert M.1990. “Substance and Method in the Use of Ratio Variables, or the Spurious Nature of Spurious Correlations.”Journal of Politics52 (1): 243-254.
35.
Layton, Charles, and Mary Walton. 1998. “Missing the Story at the Statehouse.”American Journalism Review20: 1-38.
36.
Lilley, William, Laurence J. DeFranco, and William M. Diefenderfer. 1994. The Almanac of State Legislatures. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
37.
Mondak, Jeffrey J.1990. “Determinants of Coattail Voting.”Political Behavior12 (3): 265-288.
38.
Mondak, Jeffrey J.1993. “Presidential Coattails and Open Seats.”American Politics Quarterly21: 307-319.
39.
Mondak, Jeffery J., and Carl McCurley. 1994. “Cognitive Efficiency and the Congressional Vote: The Psychology of Coattail Voting.”Political Research Quarterly47 (1): 151-175.
40.
Nagel, Jack H., and John E. McNulty. 1996. “Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections,”American Political Science Review90 (4): 780-793.
41.
Radcliff, Benjamin. 1994. “Turnout and the Democratic Vote.”American Politics Quarterly22 (July): 259-276.
42.
Roberts, Craig A., Paul Kleppner, and Jack R. Van der Slik. 1996. Almanac of Illinois Politics, 1996. Springfield: University of Illinois Press.
43.
Salmore, Stephen A., and Barbara G. Salmore. 1996. “The Transformation of State Electoral Politics.” In Carl E. Van Horn, ed., The State of the States, 2nd ed.Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
44.
Shea, Daniel M.1995. Transforming Democracy: Legislative Campaign Committees and Political Parties. Washington, DC: State University of New York Press.
45.
Squire, Peverill. 2000. “Uncontested Seats in State Legislative Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly25: 131-146.
46.
Tucker, Harvey J., and Ronald E. Weber. 1987. “State Legislative Election Outcomes: Contextual Effects and Legislative Performance Effects,”Legislative Studies Quarterly12: 537-553.
47.
Uslaner, Eric. 1976. “The Pitfalls of Per Capita.”American Journal of Political Science20: 125-133.
48.
Van Dunk, Emily, and Ronald E. Weber. 1997. “Constituency-Level Competition in the U.S. States, 1968-1988: A Pooled Analysis.”Legislative Studies Quarterly22 (2): 141-159.
49.
Weber, Ronald E.1980. “Gubernatorial Coattails: A Vanishing Phenomenon?”State Government53: 153-156.
50.
Weber, Ronald E., Harvey J. Tucker, and Paul Brace. 1991. “Vanishing Marginals in State Legislative Elections.”Legislative Studies Quarterly16(1): 29-47.
