Evidence of Group-Based Economic Voting: NAFTA and Union Households in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Previous research has found no evidence of group-based economic voting. However, these studies relied on perceptions of general group economic well-being, a goal which voters could pursue through other economic information such as the state of the general economy. Here I test for group-based economic voting by considering perceptions an issue related to group-specific economic interests that cannot be met simply through an improved national economy. Controlling for other economic interests, I find that concern with job losses due to NAFTA influenced the voting behavior of members of union households in the 1992 US presidential election, with those who were most concerned with job losses due to NAFTA more likely to vote for Perot over Clinton. These concerns did not influence the behavior of non-group members. This demonstrates that there is evidence of group-based economic voting once we disentangle it from other types of economic voting.