Though scholars have long been concerned about the quality of citizens’ political decision making, we still know little about why citizens disagree with the best-informed opinion in society, that of public policy experts. In this article, I examine the factors that lead citizens to disagree with expert opinion on questions of public policy. I find that both elite cues and individual-level attributes of citizens lead individuals to disagree with experts. In contrast to the expectations of many recent studies of cue taking, I find that citizens are more likely to disagree with expert opinion when political elites they favor challenge this opinion. Citizens also disagree with experts as a consequence of low levels of knowledge, existing policy preferences, and life experiences. The study’s results challenge the optimistic conclusions of many recent studies of cue taking and argue that there is significant value in the conventional wisdom that preceded these studies. Elite cues are not a consistent means to effective policy judgments. Instead, when it comes to reaching effective policy decisions, there is no substitute for knowledge.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1985. “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, July 1985.” First ICPSR ed., Study 8586.
2.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1985. “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 1985.” First ICPSR ed., Study 8589.
3.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1985. “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, November 1985.” First ICPSR ed., Study 8593.
4.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1986. “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, May 1986.” First ICPSR ed., Study 8582.
5.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1986. “ABC News/Washington Post Exit Poll, 1986.” First ICPSR ed., Study 8641.
6.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1987. “ABC News/Washington Post Post-Summit Poll, December 1987. First ICPSR ed., Study 8923.
7.
ABC News/Washington Post. 1989. “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, February 1989.” First ICPSR ed., Study 9240.
8.
Arnold, R. Douglas. 1993. “Can Inattentive Citizens Control Their Elected Representatives?” In Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
9.
Aviel, S. David. 1982. The Politics of Nuclear Energy. Washington, DC: University Press of America.
10.
Berelson, Bernard. 1952. “Democratic Theory and Public Opinion.”Public Opinion Quarterly16 (3): 313-330.
11.
Boffey, Philip M., William J. Broad, Leslie H. Gelb, Charles Mohr, and Holcomb B. Noble. 1988. Claiming the Heavens: The New York Times Complete Guide to the Star Wars Debate. New York: Times Books.
12.
Brzezinski, Zbigniew. 1986. “Preface.” In Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Sincere, Marin Strmecki, and Peter Wehner, eds., Promise or Peril: The Strategic Defense Initiative. Washington, DC: Ethics and Public Policy Center.
13.
Calvert, Randall L.1985. “The Value of Biased Information: A Rational Choice Model of Political Advice.”Journal of Politics47 (2): 530-555.
14.
Chaiken, Shelley. 1980. “Heuristic Versus Systematic Information Processing and the Use of Source Versus Message Cues in Persuasion.”Journal of Personality and Social Psychology39: 752-766.
15.
Chaiken, Shelley, and Charles Stangor. 1987. “Attitudes and Attitude Change.”Annual Review of Psychology38: 575-630.
16.
Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report. 1983. “Text of Reagan Address on Defense Policy.” 26 March.
17.
Converse, Philip E.1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In David E. Apter, ed., Ideology and Discontent. New York: Free Press.
18.
Cranford, John. 1990. “Restricting Foreign Investment: Easy to Debate, Hard to Do.”Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report48: 976-979.
19.
Davis, Joseph A.1986a. “Fate of Nuclear Power Tied to Liability Law.”Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report44: 154-157.
20.
Davis, Joseph A.1986b. “Disaster Raises New Questions about Fate of Nuclear Energy.”Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report44: 964-966.
21.
Delli Carpini, Michael X., and Scott Keeter. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
22.
Donath, Fred A.1982. “No Technical Barriers.” In Michio Kaku and Jennifer Trainer, eds., Nuclear Power: Both Sides. New York: Norton.
23.
Duffy, Robert J.1997. Nuclear Politics in America: A History and Theory of Government Regulation. Lawrence: University of Kansas Press.
24.
Feldman, Douglas A., and Thomas M. Johnson, eds. 1986. The Social Dimensions of AIDS: Method and Theory. New York: Praeger.
25.
Festinger, Leon. 1957. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson.
26.
Frantz, Douglas, and Catherine Collins. 1989. Selling Out: How We are Letting Japan Buy Our Land, Our Industries, Our Financial Institutions, and Our Future. Chicago, IL: Contemporary Books.
27.
Gostin, Lawrence O., and William J. Curran. 1987. “Legal Control Meeasures for AIDS: Reporting Requirements, Surveillance, Quarantine, and Regulation of Public Meeting Places.”American Journal of Public Health77 (2): 214-218.
28.
Graham, Edward M., and Paul R. Krugman. 1995. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 3rd ed.Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
29.
Kaku, Michio, and Jennifer Trainer, eds. 1982. Nuclear Power: Both Sides. New York: Norton.
30.
Kuklinski, James H., and Norman L. Hurley. 1994. “On Hearing and Interpreting Political Messages: A Cautionary Tale of Citizen Cue-Taking.”Journal of Politics56 (3): 729-751.
31.
Kuklinski, James H., and Paul J. Quirk. 2000. “Reconsidering the Rational Public: Cognition, Heuristics, and Mass Opinion.” In Arthur Lupia, Mathew McCubbins, and Samuel Popkin, eds., Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
32.
Le Poire, Beth A., Carol K. Sigelman, Lee Sigelman, and Henry C. Kenski. 1990. “Who Wants to Quarantine Persons with AIDS? Patterns of Support for California’s Proposition 64.”Social Science Quarterly71 (2): 239-249.
33.
Linenthal, Edward Tabor. 1989. Symbolic Defense: The Cultural Significance of the Strategic Defense Initiative. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
34.
Long, William J.1991. “Protecting America’s Defense Industries is Bad Policy.” In William Dudley, ed., Trade: Opposing Viewpoints. San Diego, CA: Greenhaven.
35.
Los Angeles Times. 1986. Editorial: “No on Prop. 64.” 19 October.
36.
Lupia, Arthur. 1994. “Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections.”American Political Science Review88 (1): 63-76.
37.
Lupia, Arthur, and Mathew D. McCubbins. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know?Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
38.
Margolis, Howard. 1996. Dealing with Risk: Why the Public and the Experts Disagree on Environmental Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
39.
McKelvey, Richard D., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1986. “Information, Electoral Equilibria, and the Democratic Ideal.”Journal of Politics48 (4): 909-937.
40.
Mondak, Jeffery J.1993. “Source Cues and Policy Approval: The Cognitive Dynamics of Public Support for the Reagan Agenda.”American Journal of Political Science37 (1): 186-212.
41.
Norton, Boyd. 1982. “A Brief History: The Early Years.” In Michio Kaku and Jennifer Trainer, eds., Nuclear Power: Both Sides. New York: Norton.
42.
Petrocik, John R.1996. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.”American Journal of Political Science40 (3): 825-850.
43.
Pomper, Gerald M.1972. “From Confusion to Clarity: Issues and American Voters, 1956-1968.”American Political Science Review66 (2): 415-428.
44.
Popkin, Samuel L.1991. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
45.
Pressler, Larry. 1986. Star Wars: The Strategic Defense Debate in Congress. New York: Praeger.
46.
Prestowitz, Clyde V., Jr.1988. Trading Places: How We Allowed Japan to Take the Lead. New York: Basic Books.
47.
Roderick, Kevin. 1986. “Political, Personal Toll High for Foes of AIDS Initiative.”Los Angeles Times, 29 September.
48.
Rothman, Stanley, and S. Robert Lichter. 1987. “Elite Ideology and Risk Perception in Nuclear Energy Policy.”American Political Science Review81 (2): 383-404.
49.
Schlesinger, James.[1985] 1986. “Rhetoric and Reality in Star Wars.” In Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Sincere, Marin Strmecki, and Peter Wehner, eds., Promise or Peril: The Strategic Defense Initiative. Washington, DC: Ethics and Public Policy Center.
50.
Shilts, Randy. 1988. And the Band Played On: Politics, People, and the AIDS Epidemic. New York: Penguin Books.
51.
Sniderman, Paul M., Richard A. Brody, and Philip E. Tetlock. 1991. Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
52.
Stanfield, Rochelle L.1986. “The Nuclear Option.”National Journal18: 1646-1652.
53.
Thornton, Mary. 1987. “Nakasone Making Amends to Blacks; Japanese Leader Reported to Support Proposals to Aid Minorities.”Washington Post, 3 May.
54.
Tolchin, Martin, and Susan Tolchin. 1988. Buying into America: How Foreign Money is Changing the Face of Our Nation. New York: Times Books.
55.
U.S. Senate. 1986. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Hearing Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on the Chernobyl Accident and Implications for the Domestic Nuclear Industry. 99th Cong., 2nd sess. 19 June.
56.
Wagner, Henry N., Jr., and Linda E. Ketchum. 1989. Living with Radiation: The Risk, The Promise. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
57.
Wittman, Donald A.1995. The Myth of Democratic Failure: Why Political Institutions are Efficient. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
58.
Wong, Kar-Yiu, and Kozo Yamamura. 1996. “Japan’s Direct Investment in the United States: Causes, Patterns, and Issues.” In Leon Hollerman and Ramon H. Myers, eds., The Effect of Japanese Investment on the World Economy: A Six-Country Study, 1970-1991. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.
59.
Zaller, John R.1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
