Disentangling the Roles of Ideology and Issue Positions in the Rise of Third Parties: The Case of Argentina

Abstract

This article examines why, in a system of high voter turnout, voters defect from traditional parties to third parties, and is especially focused on disentangling the roles of ideology and issue positions in voters’ decision to switch allegiances. The empirical case that is examined is the emergence of the FREPASO coalition in Argentina. Multinomial logit regression is used to analyze the vote choice of respondents in an Argentine public opinion survey. The principal finding of this article is that the victories of FREPASO stem from its ability to fill a previously empty niche in the ideological spectrum of Argentine politics. Voters for FREPASO were left-of-center, and their left-wing ideology was in part an expression of their preference for greater government intervention in reducing differences between rich and poor people, but ideology had an impact beyond a mere expression of support for a stronger government role in the economy.