An Institutional View of Congressional Elections: The Impact of Congressional Image on Seat Change in the House

Abstract

The literature on seat change in U.S. House elections abounds with explanations regarding the factors contributing to the biennial change in the partisan balance of the body. While a number of theoretically and empirically appealing models have been presented, many base their explanations around presidential politics and a variety of factors independent of Congress. In this article, I argue that in developing models of congressional seat change, it is worthwhile to consider how the public image of the institution impacts the electoral success of its members. I describe and test a model that captures the influence of the public’s perception of Congress on party seat change. Encompassing tests suggest that this framework significantly improves upon existing models. The results underscore the importance of endogenous, Congress-specific factors in explaining aggregate seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives.