The Origins and Impact of Votes for Third-Party Candidates: A Case Study of the 1998 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election

Abstract

We estimate a multinomial probit model of vote choice and turnout to examine the 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election. Like supporters of recent third-party presidential candidates, voters who elected Jesse Vetura tended to be young, male, lower in education, liberal on social issues, and fiscally conservative. Ventura support was not due to a geeral dissatisfaction with U.S. government, but it was correlated with voter dissatisfaction with Minnesota state government. Ventura was the Codorcet winner in the election; Hubert H. Humphrey was the Condorcet loser. With Ventura out of the race, Norm Coleman would have beaten Humphrey by approximately ten percentage points. Coleman voters overwhelmingly preferred Ventura to Humphrey, but Humphrey voters preferred Ventura to Coleman by a slim margin. Ventura's candidacy added seven percentage points to the turnout rate. Under full turnout, the vote shares of the candidates would not have changed significantly.