Hispanic Turnout: Estimates from Validated Voting Data

Abstract

This study is the first to test theories about the distinctiveness of Hispanic voting participation using validated voting data, which are necessary to assess Hispanic turnout relative to the turnout of other groups. The cetral issue is whether a Latino immigrant culture sustained by proximity to homelands makes Hispanic voters distinctive, or whether Hispanics vote at the same rate as others with the same social circumstances. The analyses show that in presidential contests, Hispanic citizens vote at the same rate as similarly situated Anglos and African-Americans. In midterm contests, Hispanic turnout is distinctively low and cannot be explained by the recency of immigration or weak participatory predispsitions related to Latino political culture. The explanation may be that Latinos lack the political networks and political history that motivate Anglos and African-Americans to vote in low visibility races, or Latino political leaders prefer to mobilize voters in more competitive presidetial or municipal elections.