Given the limitations of existing “prediction models” regarding recidivism among juvenile offenders, psychosocial variables were added to background variables to investigate the contributions of these factors to the prediction of recidivism. Psychosocial variables included alcohol abuse, depression, levels of parent and peer attachment, and personality traits.The participants for the present study were 299 adolescent males incarcerated from July 1998 to July 1999 in a midwestern correctional facility. Follow-up data on recidivists were collected in 1999—2000, 2000—2001, and 2001—2002. Findings differentiating recidivists from nonrecidivists were consistent with earlier studies regarding age at first commitment and parole violation. Personality variables such as cognitive structure and succorance (Personality Research Form; Jackson, 1989) improved the prediction of recidivism, even with age of commitment, educational achievement, and measures of psychopathology accounted for. Continued efforts to improve the validity of prediction models are recommended, particularly by considering psychosocial and postrelease-related variables in addition to background and educational factors.
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