Impact of Antitheft Nudging Signage on Bicycle Owners’ Locking Behavior: A Quasi-Experimental Study in Rural Japan

Abstract

This study tested the effectiveness of a nudge-based intervention aimed at encouraging cyclists to lock their bicycles, thereby reducing theft risk in nonurban areas of Japan. In this quasi-experimental design, four types of signs (control, social proof, perceived response cost, and reciprocity) were installed at 14 bicycle parking areas in Fukushima Prefecture. The number of locked bicycles was recorded twice before and seven times after the installation, covering the period from August to December 2024. A postintervention survey assessed whether cyclists recalled seeing the signs. Findings revealed that all signs increased the proportion of locked bicycles, with the effectiveness of each sign influenced by the initial locking rate at each location. These results provide empirical evidence confirming that nudge-based interventions can promote behavior change for crime prevention in nonurban settings in Japan. Future large-scale randomized experiments are needed to further validate and expand these findings.