Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

This study tested the effectiveness of a nudge-based intervention aimed at encouraging cyclists to lock their bicycles, thereby reducing theft risk in nonurban areas of Japan. In this quasi-experimental design, four types of signs (control, social proof, perceived response cost, and reciprocity) were installed at 14 bicycle parking areas in Fukushima Prefecture. The number of locked bicycles was recorded twice before and seven times after the installation, covering the period from August to December 2024. A postintervention survey assessed whether cyclists recalled seeing the signs. Findings revealed that all signs increased the proportion of locked bicycles, with the effectiveness of each sign influenced by the initial locking rate at each location. These results provide empirical evidence confirming that nudge-based interventions can promote behavior change for crime prevention in nonurban settings in Japan. Future large-scale randomized experiments are needed to further validate and expand these findings.

Keywords

bicycle theft crime prevention behavior nudge-based approach

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Agerberg

(2022). Messaging about corruption: The power of social norms. Governance, 35(3), 929–950. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12633

Algoe

S. B.

Haidt

Gable

S. L.

(2008). Beyond reciprocity: Gratitude and relationships in everyday life. Emotion, 8(3), 425–429. https://doi.org/10.1037/1528-3542.8.3.425

Amiri

Jafarian

Abdi

(2024). Nudging towards sustainability: A comprehensive review of behavioral approaches to eco-friendly choice. Discover Sustainability, 5(1), Article 444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00618-3

Ayal

Celse

Hochman

(2021). Crafting messages to fight dishonesty: A field investigation of the effects of social norms and watching eye cues on fare evasion. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 166(1), 9–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.10.003

Bartlett

M. Y.

DeSteno

(2006). Gratitude and prosocial behavior: Helping when it costs you. Psychological Science, 17(4), 319–325. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01705.x

Berk

MacDonald

J. M.

(2008). Overdispersion and Poisson regression. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24(1), 269–284. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-008-9048-4

Botzen

W. J. W.

Kunreuther

Czajkowski

de Moel

(2019). Adoption of individual flood damage mitigation measures in New York city: An extension of protection motivation theory. Risk Analysis, 39(10), 2143–2159. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13318

Braga

A. A.

MacDonald

J. M.

McCabe

J. E.

(2024). Police reform in public housing contexts: Body-worn cameras, surveillance, and harm reduction in New York city housing authority developments. Criminology and Public Policy, 23(3), 605–637. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12679

Bryan

C. J.

Tipton

Yeager

(2021). Behavioural science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(1), 980–989. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01143-3

10.

Bunch

Clay-Warner

Mcmahon-Howard

(2013). The effects of victimization on routine activities. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 41(5), 574–592. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854813508286

11.

Buttle

Fowler

Williams

M. W.

(2010). The impact of rural policing on the private lives of New Zealand police officers. International Journal of Police Science & Management, 12(4), 596–606. https://doi.org/10.1350/ijps.2010.12.4.202

12.

Clarin

B. M.

Bitzilekis

Siemers

B. M.

Goerlitz

H. R.

(2014). Personal messages reduce vandalism and theft of unattended scientific equipment. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 125–131. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12132

13.

Climenhage

J. L.

Khoo

Queisser

Hardisty

D. J.

(2022). I saw the sign! Using behaviourally informed signs to encourage parking compliance (UBC. DIBS Working Paper 2022-CBI-03). University of British Columbia Library. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/83390.

14.

Corsaro

Engel

R. S.

Herold

T. D.

Yildirim

Motz

R. T.

(2023). Hot spots policing in Las Vegas: Results from a blocked randomized controlled trial in chronic violent crime locations. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 19(1), 213–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-021-09485-8

15.

Craig

J. M.

Piquero

A. R.

Murray

Farrington

D. P.

(2018). A quasi-experimental test of the effects of criminal justice involvement on later mental health. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 14(1), 485–506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-018-9341-7

16.

Crowe

Cooper

Roach

(2024). Nudging down residential burglaries: A randomized control trial. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 18(1), Article paae068. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paae068

17.

Demir

Braga

A. A.

Apel

(2020). Effects of police body-worn cameras on citizen compliance and cooperation: Findings from a quasi-randomized controlled trial. Criminology and Public Policy, 19(3), 855–882. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12505

18.

Farrell

Tilley

(2022). Elegant security: Concept, evidence and implications. European Journal of Criminology, 19(5), 932–953. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370820932107

19.

Farrington

D. P.

Welsh

B. C.

(2006). A half century of randomized experiments on crime and justice. Crime and Justice, 34(1), 55–132. https://doi.org/10.1086/500057

20.

Fehr

Gächter

(1998). Reciprocity and economics: The economic implications of homo reciprocans. European Economic Review, 42(3-5), 845–859. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00131-1

21.

Fehr

Gächter

(2011). Fairness and retaliation: The economics of reciprocity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 159–181. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.3.159

22.

Gamman

Willcocks

(2010). ATM and cashpoint art: What’s at stake in designing against crime. UAL Research Online. http://ualresearchonline.arts.ac.uk/3157/.

23.

Gigerenzer

(2015). On the supposed evidence for libertarian paternalism. Review of Philosophy and Psychology, 6(1), 361–383. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13164-015-0248-1

24.

Goldstein

N. J.

Cialdini

R. B.

Griskevicius

(2008). A room with a viewpoint: Using social norms to motivate environmental conservation in hotels. Journal of Consumer Research, 35(3), 472–482. https://doi.org/10.1086/586910

25.

Halali

Kogut

Ritov

(2017). Reciprocating (more) specifically to you: The role of benefactor’s identifiability on direct and upstream reciprocity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(2), 473–483. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1966

26.

Hansen

P. G.

Jespersen

A. M.

(2013). Nudge and the manipulation of choice: A framework for the responsible use of the nudge approach to behaviour change in public policy. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 4(1), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1867299X00002762

27.

Hasisi

Margalioth

Jonathan-Zamir

Perry

Zamir

Haviv

(2021). Mitigating the consequences of invasive security practices: A quasi-experiment in an international airport. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17(1), 611–628. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-020-09424-z

28.

Hobden

K. L.

Thurston

W. E.

McVey

G. L.

Senn

C. Y.

(2021). An evaluation of strategies used to maximize intervention fidelity in a randomized controlled trial of a sexual assault resistance program for university women. Prevention Science, 22(1), 960–970. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-021-01239-2

29.

Hust

S. J. T.

Marett

E. G.

Lei

Chang

Ren

McNab

A. L.

Adams

P. M.

(2013). Health promotion messages in entertainment media: Crime drama viewership and intentions to intervene in a sexual assault situation. Journal of Health Communication, 18(1), 105–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2012.688241

30.

Jennings

W. G.

Fridell

L. A.

Lynch

Jetelina

K. K.

Reingle Gonzalez

J. M.

(2017). A quasi-experimental evaluation of the effects of police body-worn cameras (BWCs) on response-to-resistance in a large metropolitan police department. Deviant Behavior, 38(11), 1332–1339. https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2016.1248711

31.

Johnson

S. D.

Sidebottom

Thorpe

(2008). Bicycle theft. In problem-oriented guides for police problem-specific guides series (No. 52). Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS). https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/bicycle-theft.

32.

Jonathan-Zamir

Weisburd

(2013). The effects of security threats on antecedents of police legitimacy: Findings from a quasi-experiment in Israel. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 50(1), 3–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427811418002

33.

Keuschnigg

Wolbring

(2015). Disorder, social capital, and norm violation: Three field experiments on the broken windows thesis. Rationality and Society, 27(1), 96–126. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463114561749

34.

Köbis

N. C.

Troost

Brandt

C. O.

Soraperra

(2022). Social norms of corruption in the field: Social nudges on posters can help to reduce bribery. Behavioural Public Policy, 6(1), 597–624. https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2019.37

35.

Lai

Y. L.

Sheu

C. J.

Y. F.

(2019). Does the police-monitored CCTV scheme really matter on crime reduction? A quasi-experimental test in Taiwan’s Taipei city. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 63(1), 101–134. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X18780101

36.

Ledderer

Kjær

Madsen

E. K.

Busch

Fage-Butler

(2020). Nudging in public health lifestyle interventions: A systematic literature review and meta synthesis. Health Education & Behavior, 47(5), 749–764. https://doi.org/10.1177/1090198120931788

37.

Lim

Kim

Eck

J. E.

Kim

(2016). The crime-reduction effects of open-street CCTV in South Korea. Security Journal, 29(1), 241–255. https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2013.10

38.

H. Y.

Chan

Chai

Lau

S. M.

Khader

(2020). Examining the influence of emotional arousal and scam preventive messaging on susceptibility to scams. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 22(1), 313–330. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41300-020-00098-3

39.

Lun

Sinclair

Whitchurch

E. R.

Glenn

(2007). (Why) do I think what you think? Epistemic social tuning and implicit prejudice. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 93(6), 957–972. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.93.6.957

40.

Maddux

J. E.

Rogers

R. W.

(1983). Protection motivation and self-efficacy: A revised theory of fear appeals and attitude change. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19(5), 469–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(83)90023-9

41.

Mertens

Herberz

Hahnel

U. J. J.

Brosch

(2022). The effectiveness of nudging: A meta-analysis of choice architecture interventions across behavioral domains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(1), e2107346118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2107346118

42.

Miller

Chillar

V. F.

(2022). Do police body-worn cameras reduce citizen fatalities? Results of a country-wide natural experiment. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 38(1), 723–754. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09513-w

43.

Ministry of Justice. (2019). White paper on crime 2019. http://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/jp/66/nfm/mokuji.html.

44.

Ministry of Justice. (2022). White paper on crime 2022. https://www.moj.go.jp/housouken/houso_hakusho2.html .

45.

Monageng

Evans

Steyn

(2022). The influence of reciprocity nudges on tax compliance in South Africa: Evidence from an experimental study. eJournal of Tax Research, 20(1), 22–47.

46.

Murakami

Tsubokura

(2017). Evaluating risk communication after the Fukushima disaster based on nudge theory. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health, 29(2), 193S–200S. https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539517691338

47.

Murayama

Takagi

Tsuda

Kato

(2023). Applying nudge to public health policy: Practical examples and tips for designing nudge interventions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(5), Article 3962. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20053962

48.

National Police Agency. (2013). The white paper on police 2013. https://www.npa.go.jp/hakusyo/h25/index.html.

49.

Nettle

Nott

Bateson

(2012). Cycle thieves, we are watching you: Impact of a simple signage intervention against bicycle theft. PLOS One, 7(12), Article e51738. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0051738

50.

Park

H. T.

(2016). The impact of ignoring the level of nesting structure in nonparametric multilevel latent class models. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 76(5), 824–847. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013164415618240

51.

Park

Lake

E. T.

(2005). Multilevel modeling of a clustered continuous outcome: Nurses’ work hours and burnout. Nursing Research, 54(6), 406–413. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006199-200511000-00007

52.

Pittarello

Schmidt

Segel

Mayo

(2023). Prior behavior and wording of norm nudge requests shape compliance and reciprocity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 36(4), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2327

53.

Piza

E. L.

O’Hara

B. A.

(2014). Saturation foot-patrol in a high-violence area: A quasi-experimental evaluation. Justice Quarterly, 31(4), 693–718. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2012.668923

54.

Ratcliffe

J. H.

Perenzin

Sorg

E. T.

(2017). Operation thumbs down: A quasi-experimental evaluation of an FBI gang takedown in south central Los Angeles. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 40(2), 442–458. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-01-2016-0004

55.

Ratcliffe

J. H.

Taniguchi

Groff

E. R.

Wood

J. D.

(2011). The Philadelphia foot patrol experiment: A randomized controlled trial of police patrol effectiveness in violent crime hotspots. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 49(3), 795–831. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2011.00240.x

56.

Ratcliffe

J. H.

Taniguchi

Taylor

R. B.

(2009). The crime reduction effects of public CCTV cameras: A multi-method spatial approach. Justice Quarterly, 26(1), 746–770. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820902873852

57.

Roach

Cartwright

Weir

Richards

Weir

(2020). Reducing student burglary victimisation using the nudge approach. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 22(1), 364–380. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41300-020-00100-y

58.

Roach

Weir

Phillips

Gaskell

Walton

(2017). Nudging down theft from insecure vehicles. A pilot study. International Journal of Police Science and Management, 19(1), 31–38. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461355716677876

59.

Rogers

R. W.

(1975). A protection motivation theory of fear appeals and attitude change. The Journal of Psychology, 91(1), 93–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/00223980.1975.9915803

60.

Rosenfeld

Deckard

M. J.

Blackburn

(2014). The effects of directed patrol and self-initiated enforcement on firearm violence: A randomized controlled study of hot spot policing. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 52(3), 428–449. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12043

61.

Rothman

E. F.

Campbell

J. K.

Quinn

Smith

Xuan

(2021). Evaluation of the one love escalation workshop for dating abuse prevention: A randomized controlled trial pilot study with a sample of US navy sailors. Prevention Science, 22(1), 1060–1070. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-021-01240-9

62.

Salmon

S. J.

De Vet

Adriaanse

M. A.

Fennis

B. M.

Veltkamp

De Ridder

D. T. D.

(2015). Social proof in the supermarket: Promoting healthy choices under low self-control conditions. Food Quality and Preference, 45(1), 113–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2015.06.004

63.

Sas

Ponnet

Reniers

Hardyns

(2022). Nudging as a crime prevention strategy: The use of nudges to improve cyclists’ locking behavior and reduce the opportunities for bicycle theft. Security Journal, 35(1), 463–485. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-021-00285-3

64.

Schultz

P. W.

Tabanico

J. J.

(2009). Criminal beware: A social norms perspective on posting public warning signs. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 47(4), 1201–1222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00173.x

65.

Shillair

Dutton

W. H.

(2016). Instilling a security mindset: Getting into the cat and mouse game. SSRN Electronic Journal, March 30. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2756736

66.

Shimada

Arai

(2011). A survey of bicycle-lock use at public parking lots. In The Proceedings of the 75th Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association. The Japanese Psychological Association, 1, 1301. https://doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.75.0_3PM134 .

67.

Shimada

Arai

(2017). The effect of victim description and receiver vulnerability in threat appeal on crime prevention behavior. The Japanese Journal of Psychology, 88(3), 230–240. https://doi.org/10.4992/jjpsy.88.16032

68.

Shimada

Suzuki

(2021). Using a rural index to assess crime risk and crime prevention behavior across the urban–rural continuum: A Japanese case study. International Criminal Justice Review, 31(4), 420–437. https://doi.org/10.1177/10575677211039998

69.

Sidebottom

Thorpe

Johnson

S. D.

(2009). Using targeted publicity to reduce opportunities for bicycle theft: A demonstration and replication. European Journal of Criminology, 6(3), 267–286. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370809102168

70.

Stok

F. M.

De Ridder

D. T. D.

De Vet

De Wit

J. B. F.

(2014). Don’t tell me what I should do, but what others do: The influence of descriptive and injunctive peer norms on fruit consumption in adolescents. British Journal of Health Psychology, 19(1), 52–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjhp.12030

71.

Takahashi

(2016). Crime and response in rural Japan. In Donnermeyer

J. F.

(Ed.), The Routledge international handbook of rural criminology (pp. 45–54). Routledge.

72.

Taylor

Koper

C. S.

Woods

D. J.

(2011). A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7(1), 149–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-010-9120-6

73.

Taylor

B. G.

Liu

Maitra

Koper

C. S.

Sheridan

Johnson

(2022). The effects of community-infused problem-oriented policing in crime hot spots based on police data: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 20(1), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-022-09541-x

74.

Teper

Inzlicht

Page-Gould

(2011). Are we more moral than we think? Exploring the role of affect in moral behavior and moral forecasting. Psychological Science, 22(4), 553–558. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611402513

75.

Teper

Zhong

C. B.

Inzlicht

(2015). How emotions shape moral behavior: Some answers (and questions) for the field of moral psychology. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 9(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12154

76.

Thaler

Sunstein

(2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. Yale University Press.

77.

Toet

van Schaik

M. G.

(2012). Effects of signals of disorder on fear of crime in real and virtual environments. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(3), 260–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2012.04.001

78.

Trudel

Murray

K. B.

Kim

Chen

(2015). The impact of traffic light color-coding on food health perceptions and choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied, 21(3), 255–275. https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000049

79.

Tsang

J. A.

(2006). Gratitude and prosocial behaviour: An experimental test of gratitude. Cognition and Emotion, 20(1), 138–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/02699930500172341

80.

Tseloni

(2006). Multilevel modelling of the number of property crimes: Household and area effects. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 169(2), 205–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2005.00388.x

81.

Tversky

Kahneman

(1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(1), 297–323. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122574

82.

United Nations. (2019). World population prospects 2019. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/news/world-population-prospects-2019-0.

83.

van Bavel

Rodríguez-Priego

Vila

Briggs

(2019). Using protection motivation theory in the design of nudges to improve online security behavior. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 123(1), 29–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhcs.2018.11.003

84.

van den Akker

M. M. L. H.

(2025). The adaptive nudge framework: Advancing ethical behavioural design in financial decision-making. Journal of Social Impact in Business Research, 1(2), 3–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSIBR-11-2024-0054

85.

Vollaard

van Ours

J. C.

(2011). Does regulation of built-in security reduce crime? Evidence from a natural experiment. The Economic Journal, 121(552), 485–504. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02429.x

86.

Voyer

(2015). Nudging’ behaviours in healthcare: Insights from behavioural economics. British Journal of Healthcare Management, 21(3), 130–135. https://doi.org/10.12968/bjhc.2015.21.3.130

87.

World Bank. (2020). Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5.

88.

Yamada

Uchida

Sasaki

Taguri

Shiose

Ikenoue

Fukuma

(2023). Nudge-based interventions on health promotion activity among very old people: A pragmatic, 2-arm, participant-blinded randomized controlled trial. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 24(3), 390–394.e5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2022.11.009

89.

Yeater

E. A.

Viken

R. J.

McFall

R. M.

Wagner

L. R.

(2006). Sexual attitudes and instructional set affect estimates of risk and response effectiveness. Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment, 28(1), 232–241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10862-005-9018-1

90.

Young

J. T. N.

Ready

J. T.

(2015). Diffusion of ideas and technology: The role of networks in influencing the endorsement and use of on-officer video cameras. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 31(3), 243–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214553380

91.

Zhang

Messner

S. F.

Liu

(2007). Bicycle-theft victimization in contemporary urban China. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 44(4), 406–426. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427807305852

Impact of Antitheft Nudging Signage on Bicycle Owners’ Locking Behavior: A Quasi-Experimental Study in Rural Japan

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References