Unveiling the Association Between Residential Permanency and Street and Cybercrimes in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

This study examines how changes in residential permanency during the COVID-19 stay-at-home orders impacted street and cybercrimes in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Drawing on routine activity theory, we hypothesize that street crimes (theft, auto theft, residential burglary, and robbery) were negatively associated with residential permanency, measured by residential presence from Google Mobility Reports. In contrast, we expect cybercrimes (online fraud) to be positively associated, as increased time at home likely led to greater online activity and exposure to digital victimization. ARIMA time-series models confirmed these predictions for all street crimes except robbery, indicating that offenders adapted to the new circumstances. Surprisingly, cybercrimes were also negatively associated with residential permanency. Ad hoc analysis suggests a potential association between cybercrimes and street crimes. When electronic devices are stolen or private information is accessed (including credit cards, documents, passwords, and other confidential data), perpetrators can utilize these resources to commit further offenses in the digital domain. As a result, the decrease in street crimes may have mitigated the potential catalyzing effect of the orders on cybercrimes, highlighting the need for new theoretical frameworks.