Prevalence and cumulative incidence of low back pain: Findings from a 5-year descriptive cohort study in the dena cohort population

Abstract

Background

Low back pain (LBP) is a major global cause of disability, with its prevalence rising due to aging populations and sedentary lifestyles. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and cumulative incidence of LBP and identify related risk factors in the Dena cohort population.

Methods

This prospective cohort study included 3630 adults aged 35–70 years from the Dena Cohort Study. Baseline data were used to calculate the prevalence of LBP, and 5-year follow-up data (2019–2020) were used to estimate cumulative incidence. Participants with baseline LBP or incomplete data were excluded from the incidence analysis (final sample size: 2897). Data collection involved standard Persian Cohort questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory evaluations. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 27.

Results

The baseline prevalence of LBP was 19.5%, and the 5-year cumulative incidence was 12.4%. By 2023, the prevalence had reached 29.2%. Among new LBP cases, 67.4% were women and 32.6% were men, with the highest incidence among housewives (55.2%). About 84% of cases were from middle or high socioeconomic groups. Smoking (16.2%), hookah use (32%), and obesity (BMI >30 in 38.2%) were significantly associated with LBP. Other contributing factors included depression (22%), previous surgery (76.3%), and rheumatoid arthritis (6.1%).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates the significant burden of LBP among Iranian adults, emphasizing its high prevalence and incidence. Preventive interventions focusing on physical activity, weight management, ergonomic practices, and early detection could help reduce the impact of LBP in the community.