A hierarchical approach to the causality of shipyard accidents with integrated machine learning methods

Abstract

Background

The number of shipyard accidents should be reduced by examining the effects of the various demographic and workplace factors on the severity of the accident.

Objective

The study examines shipyard accidents and various occupational-behavioral-environmental factors affecting these accidents to find minor accidents (or near-misses) that turned out to be major and to examine the effects of factors on the possible consequences of the accidents, to compare the predicted results with the actual results, and to investigate possible hidden reasons for the occurrence of accidents.

Methods

The study uses an accident causality model and conducts experiments with a multi-factor approach on accident causality in the shipbuilding industry through logistic regression and machine learning. It performs an association rules analysis to further enhance the causality model.

Results

Machine learning algorithm outputs yielded results that differed significantly from the apparent descriptive distribution of causes of major accidents. Lack of control and audit stands out as the most important accident factor in the occurrence of major accidents. Design errors and lack of training are also two important administrative factors in the occurrence of major accidents. 38.2% of major occupational accidents in shipyards are preventable or can be overcome with minor injury. In 87% of preventable major accidents, the employee had been involved in one or two previous minor incidents.

Conclusion

Administrative deficiencies are prominent in major accidents. The main employer's workers and managers are at higher risk in terms of major accident exposure. The effectiveness of safety training should be increased in accordance with the changing working environment and technological conditions.