Automated Electronic Health Record Score to Predict Mortality Risk at the US Department of Veterans Affairs

Abstract

Background

Terminally ill patients benefit from earlier engagement in palliative care. However, this does not always occur. This project assessed if an already available risk score, the Care Assessment Needs (CAN) score, would be able to identify patients at greatest risk for mortality within 30 days of hospital admission within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

Methods

The cohort of this retrospective analysis included all VA acute are patients over 18 years of age with a recent CAN score. The CAN score is an automatically calculated VA risk score that was repurposed to determine if it could predict risk of mortality after acute care admission. Univariate logistic regression was performed to obtain the probability of mortality within 30 days of admission, based on their CAN score.

Results

298,467 patient records were assessed from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019. There was 6% mortality after 30 days of admissions, and 17% mortality within 1-year post-admission. Mean CAN score was 65 (SD: 29). On average, each incremental increase in the CAN score increased the probability of mortality by 7%. Patients with a CAN score of 90 had a 10% probability of 30-day post-admission mortality.

Conclusion

A readily available risk score, automatically calculated from EHR data, was able to identify patients at high risk for 30-day mortality in the acute care setting. Next steps will be to assess how the CAN score can be utilized to in improve end of life care for high-risk hospitalized Veterans.