Prediction Accuracy Between Terminally Ill Patients’ Survival Length and the Estimations Made From Different Medical Staff,a Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Previous reports suggested the clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and prognostic scores had similar accuracy in patients with days to weeks of life. Objective: We aimed to evaluate and compare the accuracy of CPS by attending physicians, residents, and nurses in an acute palliative care unit at a medical center. Methods: This was a 1-year prospective cohort study. Survival prediction was made within 3 days after patients’ admission and re-evaluated every week until patients’ discharge or death. Associated factors of accurate survival predictions were also explored by multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 179 inpatients were recruited and 115 of them were included in this analysis. The mean age of participants was 72.9 years and the average length of actual survival was 11.5 ± 12.0 days. For patients with survival within 30 days, the medical staff tended to overestimate their life span. The predictions made by physicians and nurses showed much closer to actual survival length through repeated estimations. Patients with metastatic cancer (odds ratio: OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.23-6.22) or cognitive impairment (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.12-5.11) had higher associations with accurate CPS. Poor performance status of ECOG (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.09-3.02) and dysphagia (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.07-3.77) were significant predictors for accurate CPS in patients with the survival of less than 2 weeks. Conclusions: The accuracy of CPS between different medical staff did not reveal significant differences in the study. The importance of re-evaluation for patients’ survival length in clinical practice is worthy of attention.