Decline of Physical Activity in Terminally Ill Patients Could Be Useful for Predicting Short-Term Survival

Abstract

Background:

Although it is recommended that all terminally ill patients receive advance care planning (ACP), this is occasionally challenging because of the difficulty in predicting survival. There are some indexes for predicting survival, but few are accurate, especially at the terminal stages of illness.

Methods:

Twenty-two patients at the terminal stages of cancer were retrospectively analyzed. We assessed their physical activity and condition using activities of daily living (ADL) scores for 1 month before the death. The ADL scores included 7 items: walking, bathing, grooming, dressing, eating, transferring, and toileting.

Results:

Survival time after the first decline of physical activity was calculated (median: 13 days, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 5.6-20.4 days). Survival time after the second (median: 5 days, 95% CI: 0-10.9 days), third (median: 5 days, 95% CI: 0-13.4 days), and fourth (median time: 1 day, 95% CI: not applicable due to small size) decline of physical activity was also calculated.

Conclusion:

Change in physical activity seems helpful for estimating survival time, especially at the end of life, and this index could be useful for coordinating final ACP.