Simulating a Climate Engineering Crisis

Abstract

Background. At the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees, climate activists and researchers began to look for alternative measures. Climate engineering (CE) - the deliberate manipulation of the planetary environment to decelerate climate change - emerges as a possibly effective, albeit risky and conflictual, option.

Aim. This article aims both at simulating a plausible international scenario of negotiation over solar climate engineering deployment, and at utilizing the rules of Model United Nations (MUN) for collaborative learning in a university class. Furthermore, the article intends to provide a framework for simulations about CE that could easily be reproduced.

Method. MUN is an established and well-tested foundation for a simulation with students, including preparation leading up to the simulation and feedback rounds afterwards. We repeated the simulation three times, recorded the sessions as well as the debriefings, and gathered interesting insight by comparing the results.

Result. For our CE simulations, we discovered: 1. Divergent interests (e.g. global north vs global south). 2. Power struggle (e.g. role of the veto powers). 3. Scientific and political ignorance (e.g. decision-making under uncertainty). 4. Risk politics (e.g. trade-offs between climate change risks vs. CE risks).

Conclusion. MUN qualifies well for simulating a CE crisis. However, known lacks in MUN settings (like underrepresentation of non-state actors) must be discussed during the debriefing. These simulations illustrate possible future conflicts over CE without being prescriptive in any way.