System dynamics models help explain why intuitive, well-intentioned solutions to social problems go awry when introduced into complicated social systems. In this article, the author develops a dynamic model, applying it to runaway and homeless youth behavior and shelter usage. Together, the model and supporting evidence imply that simple linear thinking may guide policy expansion to the detriment of homeless youth. Shelters provide incentives for other service systems to neglect difficult cases, which raises serious questions about the efficacy of the shelter system. This model provides common ground upon which practitioners, administrators, policymakers, and research communities can consider the impact and effectiveness of policy and service. Furthermore, the model challenges these communities to bring dynamic system considerations to their work.
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