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Abstract

This study examines the assumption that crime-prone individuals or organizations move to exploit changing criminal opportunities. A competing explanation holds that new criminal opportunities (e.g., Internet access, money laundering, political upheaval, etc.) provide motivation for individuals who formerly were not connected with criminal activity. Detailed case studies of organized crime groups and activities are used to examine the nexus between criminal opportunities and criminal groups. A model that employs both opportunity and offender-availability factors is proposed to predict the incidence of organized crime activity. Such a model also has implications for the extent to which law enforcement agencies and public policy should focus on surveillance of known criminal groups versus proactive strategies to reduce criminal opportunities that emerge from social and technological changes.

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The Causes of Organized Crime

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