Strong on Policy Suggestions,but Weak on Analytical Framework: A Review of the Green Paper on Restoring Full Employment

Abstract

The Green Paper makes the fundamental point that rapid economic growth of around 4 to 5 percent a year is necessary to substantially reduce unemployment, but even 5 percent growth will not greatly reduce the numbers of long-term unemployed. Policies targeted specifically at this group are also necessary. Its analysis of the policies conducive to rapid economic growth and its arguments that things like more rapid productivity growth and reductions in the participation rate have little effect on unemployment in the medium to long run are supported by simulations of the Murphy model which assumes the results that the Green Paper argues that it demonstrates. On the other hand, the Green Paper is rich in policy suggestions to reduce long—term unemployment and to improve the working of the labour market. The Job Compact is central but improvements to social security and education and training are also important.