This study examines the impact of BRICS cooperation on bilateral trade flows using an augmented gravity model for the period 1990 to 2021. It incorporates key trade determinants, including BRICS membership, WTO participation, regional trade agreements and lagged variables to capture delayed trade responses. The results indicate that BRICS membership significantly enhances intra-bloc trade. Although contemporaneous trade effects are often weak or negative, lagged interactions produce statistically significant trade gains, emphasizing the gradual process of economic integration within the bloc. However, these effects vary across member countries, reflecting structural differences and policy environments. From a policy perspective, BRICS presents opportunities to strengthen South–South trade, but the benefits remain conditional amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. For India, this suggests prioritizing diversification, strategic autonomy and risk management. More broadly, member states should focus on balanced integration, industrial upgrading and enhanced trade facilitation to sustain long-term trade growth in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
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