As part of its national strategy to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, the Korean government has established targets for average vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, recent trends have revealed only minimal improvements in vehicle performance. This study applied technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis to estimate the future technological performance of fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions based on data from vehicles released in Korea between 2016 and 2024.
The results show that while certain technologies—such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and liquefied petroleum gas vehicles—have improved steadily, gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and diesel HEVs have exhibited minimal improvement. Given the current target of a 33% electric vehicle (EV) market share by 2030, our analysis indicates that meeting the national fuel economy and greenhouse gas reduction goals under this scenario is unlikely. To achieve the 2030 targets, this study found that it is essential to increase the EV share to at least 50%.
AndersonT. R., DaimT. U., & KimJ. (2008). Technology forecasting for wireless communication. Technovation, 28(9), 602–614.
2.
ChoY., & AndersonT. R. (2017). Forecasting MBT technologies using DEA and LR. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 29(4), 353–369.
3.
ChoY., & DaimT. (2013). Technology forecasting methods. In DaimT., OliverT. & KimJ. (Eds.), Research and technology management in the electricity industry (pp. 67–112). Springer.
4.
ChoiD. Y., & ShinH. C. (2023). A study on the evaluation and improvement of average fuel efficiency standards for automobiles. Korea Energy Economics Institute. Retrieved from https://www.keei.re.kr/board.es?mid=a10101020000&bid=0001&act=view&list_no=82219&cg_code=C01
5.
Deloitte Korea. (2020). Electric vehicle market outlook: Strategy for 2030.
6.
FosterR. N. (1986). Innovation: The attacker’s advantage. Summit Books.
7.
GibsonE., van BlommestienK., KimJ., DaimT., & GarcesE. (2016). Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: The role of battery technology performance. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 29(10), 1103–1120.
8.
Hyundai Motor Group Newsroom. (2024a, February6). Kia to lead global eco-friendly vehicle market by 2030 with EVs, PBVs, and HEVs. https://www.hyundai.co.kr/news/CONT0000000000145205
9.
Hyundai Motor Group Newsroom. (2024b, February5). Hyundai Motor unveils long-term future strategy ‘Hyundai Way’ to lead the market. https://www.hyundai.co.kr/news/CONT0000000000159931
10.
InmanO. L. (2004). Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (Doctoral dissertation). Portland State University.
11.
InmanO. L., AndersonT. R., & HarmonR. R. (2006). Predicting U.S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982: A dogfight between regression and TFDEA. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(9), 1178–1187.
12.
JahromiS. R., TudorieA. A., & AndersonT. R. (2013). Forecasting hybrid electric vehicles using TFDEA. In KocaogluD. F., AndersonT. R., & DaimT. U. (Eds.), Proceedings of PICMET ’13: Technology Management in the IT-Driven Services (pp. 2098–2107). IEEE.
13.
JainV. (2019). Fossil fuels, GHG emissions and clean energy development: Asian giants in a comparative perspective. Millennial Asia, 10(1), 1–24.
14.
JooH. (2022). A study on improvement of TFDEA model-based technology prediction method: Demonstration through electric vehicle cases (Master’s thesis). Dongguk University.
15.
JungB. K., KimH. C., & LeeC. J. (2016). A study on technology forecasting of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) using TFDEA. Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society, 19(4), 799–821.
16.
KimH. S., & ChoiG. H. (2024). A study on solar cell technology forecasting using TFDEA. Asia-Pacific Journal of Convergent Research Interchange, 10(4), 23–36.
17.
Korea Energy Agency. (2019). 2019 analysis report on automobile energy efficiency.
18.
LambA. M., AndersonT., & DaimT. (2010). Difficulties in R&D target setting addressed through technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis. In KocaogluD. F., AndersonT. R., & DaimT. U. (Eds.), Proceedings of PICMET ’10: Technology Management for Global Economic Growth (pp. 1–9). IEEE.
19.
LimD. J., AndersonT. R., & RundeN. (2013). Applying technology forecasting to new product development target setting of LCD panels. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, 9, 340.
20.
LimD. J., JahromiS. R., AndersonT. R., & TudorieA.-A. (2015). Comparing technological advancement of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) in different market segments. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 97, 140–153.
21.
Ministry of Environment. (2020). Administrative notice on 2021–2030 automobile greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency standards. Retrieved from https://m.me.go.kr/home/web/board/read.do;jsessionid=IFGF2YQLeavSSQahNVgGjyxE.mehome1?pagerOffset=3020&maxPageItems=10&maxIndexPages=10&searchKey=&searchValue=&menuId=10525&orgCd=&boardMasterId=1&boardCategoryId=&boardId=1393630&decorator=
22.
Ministry of Environment. (2022). Disclosure of implementation results of the automobile greenhouse gas management system from 2016 to 2020. Retrieved from https://www.me.go.kr/home/web/board/read.do?pagerOffset=50&maxPageItems=10&maxIndexPages=10&searchKey=title&searchValue=&menuId=10525&orgCd=&condition.fromDate=2022-11-01&condition.toDate=2022-11-30&boardId=1561160&boardMasterId=1&boardCategoryId=&decorator=
23.
Ministry of Environment. (2024). Notice on average automobile energy efficiency standards, greenhouse gas emission limits, and application and management of the standards. Retrieved from https://www.law.go.kr/%ED%96%89%EC%A0%95%EA%B7%9C%EC%B9%99/%EC%9E%90%EB%8F%99%EC%B0%A8%20%ED%8F%89%EA%B7%A0%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EC%86%8C%EB%B9%84%ED%9A%A8%EC%9C%A8%EA%B8%B0%EC%A4%80%C2%B7%EC%98%A8%EC%8B%A4%EA%B0%80%EC%8A%A4%20%EB%B0%B0%EC%B6% 9C%ED%97%88%EC%9A%A9%EA%B8%B0%EC%A4%80% 20%EB%B0%8F%20%EA%B8%B0%EC%A4%80%EC%9D%98% 20%EC%A0%81%EC%9A%A9%C2%B7%EA%B4%80%EB% A6%AC%20%EB%93%B1%EC%97%90%20%EA%B4%80%ED%95%9C% 20%EA%B3%A0%EC%8B%9C/(2024-5,20240104)
24.
PriestleyM., SluckinT. J., & TiropanisT. (2020). Innovation on the web: The end of the S-curve?Internet Histories, 4(4), 390–412.
25.
RamliA. R., KadirJ. M. A., IsmailN., OthmanA. A., & MeloP. C. (2021). Fuel subsidies, fuel consumption, and road transport emissions: A systematic review. Environment-Behaviour Proceedings Journal, 6(16), 275–281.
26.
RobertsE. B. (1969). Exploratory and normative technological forecasting: A critical appraisal. Technology Forecasting, 1(2), 113.
27.
RogersE. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). Free Press.
28.
SrivastavaS., & MisraM. (2016). Assessing and forecasting technology dynamics in smartphones: A TFDEA approach. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 28(7), 783–797.
29.
SuC. W., YuanX., TaoR., & UmarM. (2021). Can new energy vehicles help to achieve carbon neutrality targets?Journal of Environmental Management, 297, 113348.
30.
TwissB. C. (1992). Managing technological innovation (4th ed.). Longman.
31.
VermaS. S., & AnjanaV. S. (2024). Understanding the Quad’s climate diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region. Millennial Asia. Advance online publication.
32.
WooldridgeJ. M. (2019). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning.
