Dynamics of Agricultural Growth in Jammu and Kashmir: Patterns and Determinants

Abstract

This article examines the trajectory of agricultural growth in the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir from 1960–1961 to 2022–2023, leveraging secondary data sources. By employing time-series modelling, this study investigates the impact of selected determinants on agricultural output over the past six decades. Our data visualizations reveal that agricultural growth was very impressive in the erstwhile state even during the peak of insurgency (during late 1980s and 1990s), whereas the growth of the secondary sector had shown the sign of deceleration during the same period. Since 2001, the deceleration has also been observed in the tertiary sector, mainly because of the lower contribution of the tourism sector. After normalcy in the erstwhile state, since 2000, agricultural growth was on the decline and it was a serious cause of concern for researchers, policymakers and agricultural scientists. Based on the multiple regression model from the eight hypothesized predictors, all variables were found to have a significant effect on agricultural output. Further, the results were found to be in line with the hypothesis barring primary agricultural credit societies. Importantly, we were able to provide evidence that disturbances in terms of cognizable crime did not have any negative impact on the growth of agricultural output in the erstwhile state/UT. Policy options have been discussed in this article.