This article explores why a decrease in the incumbent liberation party’s support in the 2024 general election influenced power turnover in Botswana but not in South Africa and Namibia. It examines the ideological influence of liberation parties and citizen dissatisfaction and argues that electoral institutions significantly influenced election outcomes. The first-past-the-post electoral system, which incentivises pre-election coalition-building and favours large parties, facilitated Botswana’s opposition party coalition (UDC) electoral victory. However, the proportional representation (PR) system in South Africa and the mixed system (PR and two rounds) in Namibia disincentivised opposition coalitions, allowing incumbent parties to remain in power despite citizen dissatisfaction.
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