Terror in the Sahel: What’s Fuelling JNIM’s Momentum in Mali?

Abstract

Terrorism remains a critical threat to Africa’s stability, with Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) emerging as a dominant force in Mali and the broader Sahel since its formation in 2017. Formed through the merger of multiple jihadist groups aligned with al-Qaeda, JNIM has expanded by exploiting Mali’s political fragility, weak governance, ethnic tensions and the withdrawal of international security forces. This expansion is facilitated by the group’s adaptive organisational structure, strategic local alliances and engagement in illicit economies. This study employs an integrative literature review to critically assess scholarly and policy-based evidence on the factors contributing to JNIM’s rise. Grounded in the state failure theory, the review explores how systemic failures—political instability, socio-economic marginalisation and security vacuums—have created fertile ground for insurgent entrenchment. By synthesising diverse sources, the study offers a comprehensive understanding of JNIM’s growth and resilience, highlighting the urgent need for holistic, context-sensitive counterterrorism strategies in Mali and across the Sahel.