Uganda’s March 2025 military intervention in South Sudan was officially announced by the chief of defence forces (CDF) of Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) via social media. The informality of the announcement was much in habit with how the current government runs Uganda. The intervention followed armed clashes between elements of the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and a militia group called the White Army in Upper Nile state of the Republic of South Sudan. This article argues that Uganda’s intervention can appropriately be explained from a realist approach. The main question the article seeks to answer is: Is Uganda a stabiliser or a meddler in South Sudan affairs? For the March 2025 intervention, Uganda has generally cited the Memorandum of Understanding on Defence Cooperation and Status of Forces Agreement 2014 with South Sudan to denote a stabilisation role. However, the intervention can be deemed as Uganda meddling in the internal affairs of South Sudan on two grounds: first, the UPDF’s active support of the government and, second, General Kainerugaba’s threats against Riek Machar in particular and the Nuer community in general.
Admin. 2025, March20. ‘UPDF Enters South Sudan in a Deadly Mission—Mlinzi wa Kimya’. Insider. https://theinsider.ug/index.php/2025/03/20/updf-enters-south-sudan-in-a-deadly-mission-mlinzi-wa-kimya/
2.
Africa Confidential. 2025, April18. ‘Ailing Salva ups the Ante’. 66, no. 8. https://www.africa-confidential.com/article-preview/id/15447/ailing-salva-ups-the-ante.
3.
Africa Press. 2022, December24. ‘President Kiir Appoint Dr. Bol Mel as Special Envoy’. https://www.africa-press.net/south-sudan/all-news/president-kiir-appoints-dr-bol-mel-as-special-envoy.
4.
Africa Press. 2025, March17. ‘South Sudan Acknowledges UPDF Deployment After Initial Denial’. https://www.africa-press.net/south-sudan/all-news/south-sudan-acknowledges-updf-deployment-after-initial-denial.
5.
AtukundaR.2025, March11. ‘UPDF Troops Arrive in Juba to Secure South Sudan Capital’. Soft Power. https://softpower.ug/ugandan-troops-arrive-in-juba-to-secure-south-sudan-capital/.
6.
AtwiineS. P.2016, July14. ‘UPDF Crosses into South Sudan’. Eagle Online. https://eagle.co.ug/2016/07/14/updf-crosses-into-south-sudan/.
7.
AU. 2014, October15. ‘Final Report of the African Union Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan’. https://peaceau.org/uploads/auciss.final.report.pdf.
8.
BannelierK., and ChristakisT.. 2013. ‘Under the UN Security Council’s Watchful Eyes: Military Intervention by Invitation in the Malian Conflict’. Leiden Journal of International Law26, no. 4: 855–74.
9.
BarkholdtJ.2024. ‘Intervention by Invitation’. Oxford Public International Law. https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1702.
10.
BatteB.2025, March15. ‘NRM Caucus Resolves to Support UPDF Deployment in South Sudan’. URN. https://ugandaradionetwork.net/story/nrm-caucus-resolves-to-support-updf-deployment-in-south-sudan.
11.
BBC News. 2016, July8. ‘South Sudan: Heavy Gunfire Following Death of Soldiers’. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36744636.
12.
BokeC.2019, April11. ‘Third Party Intervention to Civil Wars: Realist, Liberalist and English School Theoretical Perspectives’. Beyond the Horizon. https://behorizon.org/third-party-intervention-to-civil-wars-realist-liberalist-and-english-school-theoretical-perspectives/#:~:text=Realism%2C%20liberalism%2C%20and%20English%20School%20theories%20provide%20different,values%2C%20or%20both%20that%20drive%20the%20intervention%20decision%3F.
13.
BuchanR., and TsagouriasN.. 2023. ‘Intervention by Invitation and the Scope of State Consent’. Journal on the Use of Force and International Law10, no. 2: 252–70.
14.
BullH.2012. The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics, 4th ed.. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
15.
ChiristakisT., and BanelierK.. 2013, January25. ‘French Military Intervention in Mali: It’s Legal but … Why? Part II: Consent and UNSC Authorization’. EJIL: Talk!https://www.ejiltalk.org/french-military-intervention-in-mali-its-legal-but-why-part-2-consent-and-unsc-authorisation/.
16.
CocoA., KaboréA., and MaillartJ. B.. 2013, February13. ‘The Malian Conflict and International Law’. Global: The Global Journal. https://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/996/.
17.
DahirA. L.2025, March27. ‘South Sudan’s Vice President Has Been Placed Under House Arrest, Party Says’. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/world/africa/south-sudan-vice-president-arrest-riek-machar.html.
18.
Daily Monitor. 2014, May11. ‘UPDF Used Cluster Bombs in South Sudan, Says UN Report’. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/updf-used-cluster-bombs-in-south-sudan-says-un-report-1571942.
19.
Daily Monitor. 2021, January27. ‘S. Sudan Denies Rumors of President Salva Kiir’s Death as Tensions Rise’. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/world/s-sudan-denies-rumours-of-president-salva-kiir-s-death-as-tensions-rise-1671326.
20.
DemissieS. T.2025, March19. ‘Transition Fatigue’ in South Sudan Ramps Up Tensions’. ISS Today. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/transition-fatigue-in-south-sudan-ramps-up-tensions?utm_source=BenchmarkEmail&utm_campaign=ISS_Weekly&utm_medium=email.
21.
DoyleM., and RecchiaS.. 2011. ‘Liberalism in International Relations’. In International Encyclopedia of Political Science, edited by BadieBertrand, Berg-SchlosserDirk, and MorlinoLeonardo, 1434–39. Los Angeles: Sage Publications.
22.
DrakuF. E., and SamiluS.. 2025, March17. ‘UPDF Troops in S. Sudan Splits MPs, Defense’. Daily Monitor. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/mps-endorse-updf-s-south-sudan-mission-4973262.
23.
HoffmannS.1995. ‘The Crisis of Liberal Internationalism’. Foreign Policy 98: 159–77.
ICJ. 1986, June26. ‘Case Concerning Military and Para-military Activities in and Against Nicaragua [Nicaragua v. USA] (1986), Judgment’. https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/70/070-19860627-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf.
26.
IGAD. 2017, June12. ‘Communique of the 31st Extra-ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan’. https://igad.int/communique-of-the-31st-extra-ordinary-summit-of-igad-assembly-of-heads-of-state-and-government-on-south-sudan/.
27.
IGAD. n.d. ‘Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan’. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/zfaj6zd9pb7odhz0xa5pq/R-ARCSS.2018-i.pdf?rlkey=dlqqbqrix4ixz0jq2inqnqdin&e=1&dl=0.
28.
IlungaP.2025, January11–17. ‘Congo in Threat to Sever Links with Uganda over Muhoozi’s X-tweets’. The East African.
29.
Informer East Africa. 2025, March23. ‘Uganda Army Chief Says He Is Tired of Killing Nuer’. https://informereastafrica.com/index.php/east-africa/uganda-army-chief-says-he-is-tired-of-killing-nuer.
30.
Institut de droit International. 1975. ‘The Principe, of Non-intervention in Civil Wars: Session of Wiesbaden’. https://www.idi-iil.org/app/uploads/2017/06/1975_wies_03_en.pdf.
31.
Institute for Security Studies (ISS). 2025March. ‘Urgent Action Needed in South Sudan’. Peace & Security Council Report No. 177. https://issafrica.org/research/peace-and-security-council-report/peace-and-security-council-report-no-177.
32.
International Criminal Court. 1998. ‘Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court’. https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/2024-05/Rome-Statute-eng.pdf.
33.
Juba Mirror. 2025a, February11. ‘Kiir Fires Vice Presidents Wani, Abdelbagi and Appoints Dr Bol Suspected to Be Son in Law in Major Shake-up Amid Succession Talk’. https://thejubamirror.com/2025/02/11/kiir-fires-vice-presidents-wani-abdelbagi-and-appoints-dr-bol-suspected-to-be-son-in-law-in-major-shake-up-amid-succession-talk/.
34.
Juba Mirror. 2025b, April5. ‘Kiir Introduces Favorite Successor Bol Mel to Museveni’. https://thejubamirror.com/2025/04/05/kiir-introduces-favorite-successor-bol-mel-to-museveni/.
35.
KahunguM. T.2025, March12. ‘Tayebwa Dismisses Motion on UPDF Troop Deployment in South Sudan’. Parliament Watch. https://parliamentwatch.ug/news-amp-updates/tayebwa-dismisses-motion-on-updf-troop-deployment/.
36.
KainerugabaM.2025, March11. X Post. https://x.com/mkainerugaba/status/1899381746207965285?t=SWO2tyHjIK6BFRWnSi7s3g&s=19.
37.
KaplanR. n.d. ‘Peacekeeping/Peace Enforcement’. In Encyclopedia Princetoniensis. Princeton University. https://pesd.princeton.edu/node/561.
38.
KennyC., and ButlerS.. 2018. ‘The Legality of “Intervention by Invitation” in Situations of R2P Violations’. New York University Journal of International Law and Politics51, no. 1: 135–78.
39.
KhisaM.2103. ‘The Making of the “Informal State” in Uganda’. Africa Development, 38, nos 1 and 2: 191–226.
40.
KulumbaF. N.2024, December24. ‘How Uganda Government Distanced Itself from Army Chief’s Tweets’. Africa Press. https://www.africa-press.net/uganda/all-news/how-ugandas-government-distanced-itself-from-army-chief-tweets.
41.
MafaroM.2025, April6. ‘Kiir Shows Off His Pick as Museveni Visits Juba’. https://goldmidi.com/community/threads/kiir-shows-off-his-pick-as-museveni-visits-juba.17397/
42.
MaringaG.2022, October4. ‘Museveni’s Son Muhoozi: My Nairobi Invasion Post Was a Joke’. The Standard. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001457311/musevenis-son-muhoozi-my-nairobi-invasion-post-was-a-joke.
43.
MarksonO.2025a, March11. ‘Breaking! UPDF Deploys Commandos into Juba, South Sudan’. East News. https://eastnews.co.ug/2025/03/11/breaking-updf-deploys-commandos-into-juba-south-sudan/.
44.
MarksonO.2025b, March29. ‘UPDF Breaks Silence on Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in South Sudan’. East News. https://eastnews.co.ug/2025/03/29/updf-breaks-silence-on-alleged-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-south-sudan/.
45.
MearsheimerJ. J.2013. ‘Structural Realism’. In International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity, edited by DunneT., KurkiM., and SmithS.3rd ed., 77–93. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
46.
MugerwaY.2014, January11. ‘Museveni Wants MPs to Bless South Sudan Deployment’. Daily Monitor. https://ww.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/museveni-wants-mps-to-bless-south-sudan-deployment-1562826.
47.
MunezaS.2016, July12. ‘Gen Museveni Orders UPDF to Evacuate Ugandans from South Sudan’. Eagle Online. https://eagle.co.ug/2016/07/12/gen-museveni-orders-updf-to-evacuate-ugandans-from-south-sudan/.
48.
MuseveniY.2022, October5. ‘Statement on Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s Tweets About Kenya’. https://www.yowerikmuseveni.com/statement-gen-muhoozi-kainerugabas-tweets-about-kenya.
49.
MutamboA., OluochF., AmaniL., and MalakG.. 2025, March29–April4. ‘How Economic Interests Pushed Uganda to Deploy in S. Sudan’. The East African, 4–5.
50.
NoelJ.1981. Le principe de non-intervention: Théorie et pratique dans les relations inter-américaines. Bruxelles: Bruylant.
51.
OkelloM. C., Atta-AssamohA., and DemissieS. T.. 2025, April29. ‘The Window to Salvage South Sudan’s Peace Process Is Closing Fast’. ISS Today.
52.
OluochF.2025, September27–October3. ‘Machar in the Dock: S. Sudan Justice System Goes on Trial’. The East African, 8–9.
53.
OmachP.2010. ‘The Regionalization of Rebel Activities: The Case of the Lord’s Resistance Army’. In Militias, Rebels and Militants: Human Insecurity and State Crises in Africa, edited by OkumuW. and IkelegbeA., 287–311. Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies.
54.
PaanLuelWël. N.d. ‘President Kiir Fires Wani Igga and Appoints Benjamin Bol Mel as Vice President’. https://paanluelwel.com/2025/02/11/president-kiir-fires-vp-wani-igga-and-appoints-benjamin-bol-mel-as-vice-president/#:~:text=Two%20key%20decisions%20stand%20out%20in%20this%20latest,cabinet%20members%20without%20consultation%20with%20Dr.%20Riek%20Machar.
55.
Parliament of the Republic of Uganda. 2025, March21. ‘Parliament Approves UPDF Deployment in South Sudan’. https://www.parliament.go.ug/news/3645/parliament-approves-updf-deployment-south-sudan.
56.
PospisilJ.2025. ‘Elite Recyclement or Generational Change: South Sudan’s Critical Juncture’. African Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adaf021.
57.
PrincewillN.2022, October6. ‘Uganda President Apologizes to Kenya for Son’s Ill-advised Invasion Tweets’. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/06/africa/museveni-kenya-invasion-apology-intl/index.html.
58.
Radio Tamazuj. 2015, September15. ‘Text: Kiir’s Speech on Peace Implementation’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/text-kiir-s-speech-on-peace-implementation.
59.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025a, September29. ‘Special Court: We Have Jurisdiction to Try Dr, Maxchar, Co-accused’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/special-court-we-have-jurisdiction-to-try-dr-machar-co-accused.
60.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025b, March28. ‘Makuei Says Machar Arrested to Restore Calm’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/makuei-says-machar-arrested-to-restore-calm.
61.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025c, March24. ‘Machar Urges UN to Intervene over Ugandan Forces’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudans-machar-urges-un-to-intervene-over-ugandan-forces.
62.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025d, April1. ‘UPDF Chief: I Have Ordered Stop to White Army Attacks’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/updf-chief-i-have-ordered-stop-to-white-army-attacks.
63.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025e, March17. ‘Updated: Airstrike Kills 21 Civilians in Nasir’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/nasir-airstrike-kills-21-civilians-local-sources-say.
64.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025f, March19. ‘Nasir Rocked by Renewed Aerial Bombardments’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/nasir-rocked-by-renewed-aerial-bombardments.
65.
Radio Tamazuj. 2025g, November12. ‘Bol Mel removed from VP post, party, security service’. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/bol-mel-removed-from-vp-post-party-security-service
66.
R-JMEC. 2024, October1–December31. ‘Report on the Status of Implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, Report No. 25/24’. Juba South Sudan. https://www.jmecsouthsudan.com/index.php/reports/rjmec-quarterly-reports/261-rjmec-quarterly-report-on-the-status-of-implementation-of-the-r-arcss-from-1st-october-to-31st-december-2024/file.
67.
R-JMEC. 2025, January1–March31. ‘Report on the Status of Implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, Report No. 26/25’. Juba South Sudan. https://www.rjmec.org/index.php/reports/report-on-the-status-of-implementation-of-the-revitalized-agreement-on-the-resolution-of-conflict-in-the-republic-of-south-sudan-january-march-2025.
68.
RoachS. C.2024. ‘State Fragility and Its Contents: South Sudan’s Unruly Elite’. South African Journal of International Affairs31, no. 4: 435–53.
69.
RothchildD.2003. ‘Third-party Incentives and Phases of Conflict Prevention’. In From Promise to Practice: Strengthening UN Capacities for the Prevention of Violent Conflict, edited by SriramC. L. and WermesterK., 35–66. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
70.
RustadS. A.2025. ‘Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946-2024’. PRIO Paper 2025, Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/31b69202-0728-4852-94e9-a08bdf662fe9/Rustad%20-%20Conflict%20Trends%201946-2024%20-%20PRIO%20Paper.pdf?inline=true.
71.
South Sudan Liberty News. 2024, September29. ‘South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Critical Condition’. https://southsudanliberty.com/news/index.php/latest-news/2231-south-sudan-president-salava-kiir-mayardit-in-critical-condition.
72.
SoyA., and FlemingL.. 2025, March29. ‘Helicopter Pilot Recounts Flying Under Gunfire in Daring Rescue Mission’. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q1j0415kdo.
73.
Standard Reporter. 2015, July29. ‘South Sudan President Salva Kiir Rushed to Hospital in Ethiopia’. The Standard. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000149709/south-sudan-president-salva-kiir-rushed-to-hospital-in-ethiopia.
74.
Status of Forces Agreement. 2014, January10. ‘Agreement Between the Government of the Republic of Uganda and the Government of the Republic of South Sudan’. https://minbane.wordpress.com/2025/03/20/https-wp-me-p1xtjg-rxp/.
75.
StedmanS. J.1997. ‘Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes’. International Security22, no. 2: 5–53.
76.
Sudan Tribune. 2016, August19. ‘Machar in DR Congo Cared for by Authorities: UN’. https://sudantribune.com/article58254/.
Sudans Post. 2023, December9. ‘Kiir Returns to Juba, Dismissing Health Speculations’. https://www.sudanspost.com/kiir-returns-to-juba-dismissing-health-speculations/.
79.
Sudans Post. 2025, March11. ‘South Sudan Denies Presence of Uganda Troops in Its Territory’. https://www.sudanspost.com/south-sudan-denies-presence-of-uganda-troops-in-its-territory/.
80.
The Independent. 2025, March23. ‘UPDF Wrong on South Sudan Deployment’. https://www.independent.co.ug/cover-story-updf-wrong-on-south-sudan-deployment/.
81.
TrippM.2010. Museveni’s Uganda: Paradoxes of Power in a Hybrid Regime. London: Lynne Rienner.
Uganda Parliament. n.d. ‘Motion for a Resolution of Parliament to Support the Deployment of the UPDF in the Republic of South Sudan under the MoU on Defense Cooperation and the Status of Forces Agreement Executed Between the Republic of Uganda and the Republic of South Sudan’. https://www.parliament.go.ug/news/3645/parliament-approves-updf-deployment-south-sudan.
84.
Uganda. n.d. ‘Statement Made by Uganda on the 5th Meeting of States Parties to the Convention on Cluster Munitions (5MSP CCM), San Jose, Costa Rica’, 1–5September2014. https://www.clusterconvention.org/files/meetings/5msp/Uganda.pdf.
85.
UN. 2008. Yearbook of the International Law Commission 1999, Vol. II, Part 1. https://legal.un.org/ilc/publications/yearbooks/english/ilc_1999_v2_p1.pdf.
86.
UNMISS. 2025, March7. ‘UNMISS Personnel Killed and Injured During Attack on UN Helicopter in Nasir, South Sudan’. https://unmiss.unmissions.org/unmiss-personnel-killed-and-injured-during-attack-un-helicopter-nasir-south-sudan-0.
87.
UPDF. 2025, March28. ‘UPDF Refutes Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in South Sudan’. https://www.updf.go.ug/press_statement/updf-refutes-alleged-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-south-sudan/.
88.
VhumbunuC. H.2020, August20. ‘The Formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity in South Sudan’. ACCORD Conflict Trends, 2. https://www.accord.org.za/conflict-trends/the-formation-of-the-revitalized-transitional-government-of-national-unity-in-south-sudan/.
89.
WalterB. F.1997. ‘The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement’. International Organization51, no. 3: 335–64.
90.
WippmanD.1996. ‘Military Intervention, Regional Organizations, and Host-state Consent’. Duke Journal of Comparative & International Law7, no. 1: 209–40.
