China–US–India Triangular Relationship: Historical Evolution and Strategic Interactions

Abstract

The formation logic and development trend of the China–US–India triangular relationship can be revealed through three dimensions: theoretical origin, historical analysis and realistic assessment. It is further found that under the background of new globalisation, this relationship will influence the global pattern in a way that combines cooperation and competition. From a historical perspective, after going through three stages: the Cold War period, the post-Cold War period and the period since the USA put forward the Indo-Pacific Strategy—the China–US–India relationship has formed close interactive ties. Economically, China, the USA and India are the world’s three major economies with high interdependence. Strategically, the USA is in a period of contraction, China is consolidating its regional influence, and India is becoming more active and proactive in the Indian Ocean and on the global stage. In terms of comprehensive national strength, the USA has advantages in science, technology and maritime security; China holds an advantage in manufacturing; and India has advantages in the service industry and demographic dividend. The emerging China–US–India triangular relationship presents important characteristics such as inclusiveness, multi-hub nature, overlapping and being driven by new globalisation. Especially in the field of artificial intelligence, the three countries have complementary advantages while remaining independent of each other. In short, the China–US–India ‘weak triangle’ is different from the highly confrontational pattern during the Cold War. It emphasises an inclusive and multi-hub model and is expected to avoid traditional power traps through interdependence and strategic flexibility and jointly shape the future international order.