Predicting Transitions in Stunting,Wasting and Underweight Among Children in Aspirational Districts of India

Abstract

This article analysed the trends in reduction of stunting, underweight and wasting among children 6–35 months, as evidenced in the real-time data of the Karnataka Multi-sectoral Nutritional Pilot Project (KMNPP) (2015–2018), implemented in Chincholi Block, Gulbarga District and Devadurga Block, Raichur District, published in The Indian Journal Human Development on 19 May 2022. It attempts to apply the real-time proof of concept re trends and transitions on the baseline data of stunting, wasting and underweight of children 6–35 months extracted from NFHS-5 data of the two lowest quintile households of all the 112 aspirational districts (ADs) using linear, exponential and logarithmic regression, and predicts the improvement of these three measures, after implementation of the KMNPP interventions for a period of five years. The article also projects how this improvement impacts the average aspirational district data regarding these three measures, and the national average taken from NFHS-5. In five years, as per the linear regression trend, stunting decreased from 46.3% to 30.4%, wasting from 24.6% to 9.0% and underweight from 43.0% to 1.2% in the two lowest quintile households of 112 ADs. Due to these changes in two lowest quintile households of aspirational districts, stunting percentage will reduce from 41.7% to 33.6%, wasting from 22.8% to 15.5% and underweight from 38.0% to 20.7% in all the 112 ADs; and nationally, stunting will reduce from 36.2% to 31.4%, wasting from 19.9% to 16.1%, underweight from 31.2% to 23.5%.

Hence, for India to show faster progress in reduction of stunting, wasting and underweight, there is strong justification for replication of the KMNPP interventions in the poorest two quintile households of all 112 ADs.