United Germany: Quo Vadis? ∗

Election statistics in Deutschland, Bonn, No. 6/98, Dec.-Jan. E, p. 7.

Quoted in Schwarz Hans-Peter “Das deutsche Dilemma”, in Kaiser Karl Maull Hanns W. (eds.), Deutschlands neue Aussenpolitik, Vol. I, Oldenbourg, Munich, 1994, p. 85.

See Blech Klaus “Germany between East and West”, SAIS Review, Washington DC, Fall 1995, Vol. XV, Special Issue, p. 34.

Kaiser Karl , “Das Vereinte Deutschland in der internationalen Politik”, in Kaiser Maull , Vol. I, op. cit. , pp. 1–2. Also Valerie Guerin-Sendelbach, “Wiedervereiningung”, in Picht Robert et al. (eds.), Fremde Freunde, Deutsche und Franzosen vor dem 21, Jahrhundert, Piper, Munich, 1997, p. 147.

This is observed by many non-German experts, e.g., Lequesne Christian , “Europaeische Union”, in Picht, op. cit. , p. 308; Rudney Robert , “Europe: Integrtion or Fragmentation?” in Thompson Kenneth W. (ed.), Europe and Germany: Unity and Diversity, Univ. of Virginia, Lanham, 1994, p. 5; and Gougeon Jacques-Pierre , “Frankreichs neuer Selbstbehauptungswille”, Internationale Politik, Bonn, Sept. 1998, No. 9, Vol. 53, p. 15.

See inter slia, Flacke Christian , “The National Interests of the Federal Republic of Germany on the Threshold of the 21st Century”, Aussenpolitik, Bielefeld, 2/98, Vol. 49, pp. 5–25.

Kaiser , op. cit. , p. 9.

Robert O Keohane et al. (eds)., After the Cold War, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1993, p. 389, quoted in Jaeger Thomas et al. (eds.), Europa 2020, Szenarien Politischer Entwicklung, Leske & Budrich, Opladen, 1997, p. 10.

See Kotzias Nicos , “Die Rolle der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der neuen Architektur Europas”, in Thomas Caroline Weiner Klaus-Peter (eds.), Auf dem Weg zur Hegemonialmacht? Die deutsche Aussenpolitik nach der Vereinigung, Papy Rossa Verlag, Cologne, 1993, pp. 114, 127.

Schwarz , op. cit. , pp. 95–96.

Document No. 166, former national security adviser Horst Teltschik’s memorandum to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, undated but probably of Feb. 1990, entitled “Gesamteuropaische Sicherheitsarchitektur”, in Kuesters Hans Juergen Hoffmann Daniel (eds.), Deutsche Einheit. Sonderedition aus den Akten des Bundeskanzlerzmtes 1989/90, Oldenbourg, Munich, 1998, p. 774.

Blech , op. cit. , pp: 23–24; Guerin-Sendelbach, op. cit. , pp. 147–148; Asmus Ronald D. , Germany in Transition; National Self-Confidence and International Reticence, RAND, Santa Monica, 1992, p. vii.

For example, Arnold Hans , Deutschlands Groesse, Deutsche Aussenpolitik Zwischen Macht und Mangel, piper, Munich, July 1995, pp. 32–33.

Thomas Caroline Klaus-Peter Weiner , “Neuer Interventionismus-die deutsche Aussenpolitik nach der Vereinigung”, in Thomas Weiner , op. cit. , p. 151. Also Wolfram Wette , “Der Wunsch nach Weltmacht”, Die Zeit, 30 July 1993.

Thomas , Weiner, note 14, p. 152.

Adomeit Hannes , “Russland, Deutschland und the ‘neue’ Weltordnung”, in Schmidt Gustav (ed.), Ost-West Beziehungen: Konfrontation und Detente, Vol. II, Universitaetsverlag Dr. N. Brockmeyer, Bochum, 1993, p. 26; Thomas, Weiner, note 14, pp. 150–151; Strategic Survey 1997/98, IISS, London, April 1998, p. 102; Der Spiegel, Hamburg, 34/1998, pp. 32–33.

Kuehne Winrich , “Multinationale Friedensmissionen und nationale Interessen”, in Kaiser Karl Krause Joachim (eds.), Deutschlands neue Aussenpolitik, Vol. III, Oldenbourg, Munich, 1996, p. 15.

Kuehne , ibid .

The Bundeswehr still remains a significant force in Europe, especially in view of the fact that the USA planned to cut back its Europe-based force from 326,000 men to 100,000 by 1995. Duke Simon , The New European Security Disorder, Macmillan, London, 1994, p. 154.

Hubei Helmut , “Das vereinte Deutschland in der internationalen Wahmehmung”, in Suessmuth Hans (ed.), Deutschlandbilder in Daenemark and England, in Frankreich und den Niederlanden, Nomos, Baden-Baden, 1996, pp. 65–67.

Ibid., pp. 66, 72.

Bahr Egon , Deutsche Interessen. Streitschrift zu Macht, Sicherheit und Aussenpolitik, Karl Blessing Verlag, Munich, 1998, blurb, pp. 17–18.

SPD, Grundsatzprogramm der Sozialdemokratischen Partei Deutschlands, Bonn, no date, p. 16; CDU/CSU, Freedom Based on Responsibility, Principles and Programm, Bonn, no date, p. 85; CDU/CSU, 1998-2002. Wahlplattform, Bonn, no date, p. 28.

Baun Michael J. , An Imperfect Union. The Maastricht Treaty and the New Politics of European Integration, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1996, pp. 36–37.

Euro News TV, Bonn, 29 Sept. 1998, 9 p.m.

Timmermann Heinz , “DieEuropapolitik Russlands und the russisch-deutschen Beziehungen”, in Meissner Boris (ed.), Die Aussenpolitik der GUS-staaten und ihr Verhaeltnis zu Deutschland und Europa, Verlag Wissenschaft und Politik, Cologne, 1994, p. 101.

Adomeit , op. cit. , p. 33.

Euro News TV, Bonn, 24 August 1998, 6 p.m.

Russia’s exports to Germany fell from 16 billion DM in 1990 to 11 billion in 1992; imports from Germany fell from 22 bil. to 11 bil. DM in the same period. Gemdn net direct investment in Russia reached a low in 1992 with 8 million DM. compared to 785 mil. DM in Hungary, 503 mil. in the Czech Republic, and 144 mil. in Poland that year, Timmermann, op. cit. , p. 107.

Georg-Wieck Hans , “Transnationale Gefaehrdungen der internationalen Sicherheit”, in Kaiser Maull , Vol. II, op. cit. , pp. 233–234. The A-12 Berlin-Frankfurt/oder highway, for example, is a haven for East European smugglers. WDR TV, Bonn, 10 Sept. 1998, 9.30 p.m.

Neusel Hans , “Internationale Kriminalitaet”, in Kaiser Krause , Vol. III, op. cit. , p. 260.

CNN, Bonn, 15 Oct. 1998, 7.30 p.m.