The-Post Cold War World Order

The literature on this subject is very large. See the summary in Choucri Nazli Robinson Thomas , eds, Forecasting in International Relations, San Francisco: Freeman, 1978.

Gould Stephen Jay , Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle, Cambridge. Harvard University Press, 1987.

See Jervis Robert . “Loss Aversion in International Politics” Political Psychology. May, 1988, pp. 34–36. Kahneman and Tversky . “Choices, Values, and Frames.” American Psychologist, Vol. 39, No. 3, April, 1984, pp 341–350: Lebow Richard Ned Stein Janice , “Beyond Deterrence”. Journal Of Social Issues. Vol. 43, No. 4. Winter, 1987, pp. 5–17.

A good example is Mearsheimer John . “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security, Vol. 15, No. 1, Summer 1990.

The best critique of the utility of theorizing based on the assumption of anarchy is Milner Helen . “The Assumption of Anarchy in International Relations Theory: A Critique.” Review of International Studies. Vol. 17, No. 1, January 1991, pp. 67–85.

See Evera Stephen Van . “Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War”, International Security, Vol. 15, No. 3, Winter, 1990/91 pp. 7–57: Ullman Richard H. . Securing Europe. Princeton. N.J.. Princeton University Press, 1991.

Bush George states that the: “United States has deemed it a vital interest to prevent any hostile power or group of powers from dominating the Eurasian land mass.” but in fact neither the United States nor Britain was willing to trust the benign intentions of any state that seemed likely to control the continent. Bush George , The National Security Strategy of the United States. 1990-91. Washington. D.C. Brassey’s 1980. p. 5.

This point is stressed in Mueller John , Retreat from Doomsday; The Obsolescence of Major War. New York. Basic Books, 1989.

For an unconvincing attempt, see Friedman George LeBard Meredith . The Coming War with Japan. New York, St. Martin’s, 1990.

See the discussion of vulnerability and sensitivity interdependence in Cooper Richard . The Economics of Interdependence, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1968; and Keohane Robert Nye Joseph S. Jr. . Power and Interdependence, Boston, Little Brown, 1977; as well as the pathbreaking study by Hirschman Albert , National Power and the Structure of International Trade. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1980 (originally published in 1945).

Evera Stephen Van . “Why Europe Matters; Why the Third World Doesn’t: America’s Grand Strategy After the Cold War.” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2, June, 1990, p. 5.; Ever a, “Primed for Peace, pp. 14–16: Kaysen Carl , “Is War Obsolete? A Review Essay,” International Security, Vol. 14, No. 4, Spring 1990, pp. 53–57.

Waltz , Theory of International Politics, Reading, Mass. Addison-Wesley, 1979, pp. 151–160.

Huntington Samuel , “America’s Changing Strategic Interests.” Survival, Vol. 23, No. 1. January-February. 1991, p. 8.

Mueller , Retreat From Doomsday, For a discussion of changes in values among Europeans on matters of domestic society and ways of life, see Inglehart Ronald , The Silent Revolution, Princeton. N.J., Princeton University Press, 1977: and Inglehart , Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society, Princeton. N.J., Princeton University Press, 1990. For a rebuttal, see Clarke Harold Dutt Nitish . “Measuring Value Change in Western Industrial Societies.” American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 3. September 1991, pp. 905–920.

Doyle Michael , “Kant Liberal Legacies and Foreign Affairs”, Part I, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Vol. 12, No. 3. Summer, 1983, pp. 205–235; and Part II. Ibid. No. 4. Fall, 1983, pp. 323–353.

Evera Van , “Primed for Peace”, pp. 9–10, 43–44.

The incentives of ties to the rest of Europe, in conjunction with the active assistance of European politicians, facilitated Spain’s transition to democracy: see Malefakis Edward , “Spain and Its Francoist Heritage” in Herz John . ed., From Distatorship to Democracy, Westport, Conn., Greenwood, 1982, pp. 217–219: and Barker Mary , “International Influences in the Transition to Democracy in Spain’, Columbia, Columbia University Press, Spring, 1988.

Snyder Kack , “Avoiding Anarchy in the New Europe.” International Security, Vol. 14, No. 4. Spring, 1990. pp. 5–41.

It should be noted, however, that the conclusion about the future follows from the judgement of the past only if all other things remain equal. This ignores the possibility that the end of the Cold War will trigger processes that could compensate for the removal of the superpower restraint, or on the other hand, that would alter politics in the Third World in ways that are difficult to foresee For reasoning of this type, see Jervis Herman Systems and Interaction, Cambridge. Harvard University Press, 1974.

Krauss Clifford , “Democratic Leaders Divided on China Trade”. New York Times, October 9, 1990, p. 8.

Gilpin Robert , The Political Economy of International Relations, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1987, pp. 397–401.

Art Robert , “Defensible Defense; American Grand Strategy after the Cold War, “International Security” Vol. 15, No. 4, Spring 1991, pp. 30–41: and Evera Van . “Why Europe Matters,” pp. 10–11.

Bush George , National Security Strategy of the United States, p 7. This is part of Bush’s “new world order”. For a good exposition of this concept, see Slaon Stanley . “The U.S. Role in a New World Order: Prospects for George Bush’s Global Vision,” Congressinal Research Service Report, March 28, 1991. Also see Kupchan Charles Kupchan Clifford , “Concerts, Collective Security, and the Future of Europe,” International Security, Vol. 16, No. 1, Summer, 1991, pp. 114–161.

For the advocacy of this position, see Huntington . “America’s Changing Strategic Interests,” p. 13. Slocombe Walter , “The Continued Need for Extended Deterrence”. Washington Quarterly, Vol. 14, Autumn, 1991, pp. 160–167.