Propellants of a New FATA or Galvanizers of Stability? Reducing Autocatalytic Conflict Dynamics by Brokering Intergovernmental Cooperation between the Ferghana States

Abstract

The potential for disruption of the post-2014 Afghanistan transformation process will likely, as it has done historically, largely be influenced by the interplay of regional¹ actors’ political, socio-economic and security endeavours. In consideration of various geopolitical dynamics, including the rising prominence of Kazakhstan’s influence in the region, this article examines some of the tensions between the Ferghana States (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) that likely need to be addressed in order to help provide an enabling environ for Afghanistan to flourish unimpeded in the post-2014 era. This article illustrates that regional intergovernmental bodies could play a pivotal role in strategically co-managing the coordination of stabilizing efforts and the pursuit of collective shared interests amongst Central Asian² actors. In particular, this commentary suggests that an intergovernmental approach could fill capacity gaps to help address political and socio-economic tensions between the Ferghana States, specifically, measures aimed at reducing social volatility in Central Asia’s centre of gravity, the Ferghana Valley, an area considered to have the potential of becoming a safe haven for spoilers of Afghanistan’s post-2014 transformation, further infusing autocatalytic conflict dynamics.