Abstract
The National Commission for Integrated Water Resources Development has assessed that the primary need for water will rise for producing adequate food (assessed at some 420–480 million MT annually) for the estimated population of 1.58 billion by 2050.This article examines how the pattern of rural livelihoods will emerge in future. The article notes that there is a strong association of prosperity and occupational diversification with basin closure or water scarcity in the country. It is noted that even after the entire projected irrigation potential of 84 million ha is created, the farming sector will be unable to absorb the number of people in gainful engagement that are projected at current rates. While the farming sector will probably accommodate all rural residents, the problem of urban settlers will be intense. Livelihoods of the order of 375 million people (overall) will need to be found outside agriculture. These will need to be found in sectors such as construction, manufacturing and services. Whether it will actually happen is moot, but if it does, the emerging pattern of rural livelihoods will not be more water intensive than now.
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