Managing Central Government Finances: Asymmetric Seasonality in Receipts and Expenditures

Abstract

This article examines asymmetry in the pattern of seasonality in revenues and expenditures of central government, highlighting the scope of improving efficiency in the management of government finances. Asymmetry is conceptualized as consisting of three inter-related aspects: (a) monthly pattern of unevenness measured against a norm of equally distributed monthly shares of revenues and expenditures, (b) non-synchronization between the pattern of unevenness for expenditures as compared to that for revenues and (c) fiscal year start–end (April and March) extreme variations. We have defined and applied an index of seasonal unevenness to individual revenue and expenditure aggregates. A prominent feature of asymmetry in revenue receipts emanates from the bunching of corporate and income tax revenues in the months of September, December and March. Non-tax revenues peak prominently in August and March. Mismatches in expenditures and revenues due to different patterns of unevenness necessitate financing by borrowing, which involve fiscal costs. In addition, non-synchronization of expenditures that invite injecting demand into the system and revenues that involve withdrawal of resources have macro implications that affect aggregate demand. This also has a monetary cost affecting availability of liquidity. In making comparisons, we have examined monthly revenue and expenditure data over the period from 2000–2001 to 2015–2016, which was divided into four periods with respect to political economy regimes relating to NDA1, UPA1, UPA2 and NDA2. We also take note of undue adjustments in expenditures and revenues for ostensibly meeting fiscal and revenue deficit targets by postponing expenditures to the next fiscal year and obtaining advance payments of taxes.