Is there any Long-run Relationship between India’s Current and Capital Account Balance? A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The long-run relationship between current account balance (CAB) and capital account balance (KAB) and the repercussions of capital account convertibility (KAC) on the growth process of a country is a much-debated issue. In particular, in the aftermath of the Southeast Asian crisis, the limitation of the liberal capital regime for a developing country like India is often highlighted in the literature. However, the probable impact of introducing KAC on CAB in India is generally discussed theoretically. Though some empirical studies in India have recently focused on this research question, the current paper contributes to the literature first, by exploring the presence of any endogenous structural breaks in the individual series of CAB and KAB and then examining the nature of long-run relationship between them. Applying the ARDL method of co-integration, the empirical findings support the presence of a long term co-integrating relationship between capital and current account balance and reveals that a significant structural break is observed during 2002–03 for both the series.