Forecasting Nationwide Demand for the Cardiac PTCA Procedure

Abstract

The PTCA procedure or angioplasty is a major strategy in the treatment of Coronary Artery Disease. In this article, we forecast the demand for PTCA procedures on a monthly basis using past data. There are a total of 80 hospitals in the country wherein PTCA procedures are currently performed. Of these, data was collected for 21 hospitals in the North and East on the number of PTCA procedures performed from January 2003 to June 2004, for a period of 18 months. Based on volumes of procedures performed, the hospitals were divided into 8 segments. Forecasting of demand was done for each segment and then the segment level forecasts were combined to give an overall forecast for the next month, i.e., July 2004. The forecasting procedure is based on two methods, Exponential Smoothing and Exponential Smoothing with Trend (Holt's Method).

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References

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