Forecasting as an Operations Management Tool in a Medical Examiner's Office

Abstract

Quantitative analysis in business decision making and operations management has evolved into an independent but non-exclusive alternative to qualitative analysis. We are the first to commoditise the autopsy and establish it as the fundamental cost base/object for a medical examiner's office. We apply the multiplicative seasonal forecasting method for the determination of autopsy demand and the optimal quantitative operations management of a medical examiner's office. Five-year historical data and archives were reviewed at the Allegheny County Medical Examiner's Office, Pennsylvania. The numbers of daily and monthly autopsies performed were collected. Seasonal factors were derived for two seasonal series: days of the week and months of the year. Monday had the lowest seasonal factor of 0.94 and Saturday had the highest of 1.08. October had the lowest seasonal factor of 0.94 and January had the highest at 1.10. Human and other resources may be optimally task-assigned and scheduled based on differential seasonal series forecasting of autopsy demand. Conferences and vacations may also be scheduled on the days and months with lower seasonal factors. Forecasting methods are increasingly becoming an operations management tool in the health and death investigation industries.