Assessing Instability and Decomposition of Factors Contributing to Pear Crop Production Variability in Kashmir

Abstract

The present study examines the fluctuation and instability in pear crop production in Kashmir using time-series data from 2001 to 2020. This assessment involves instability indices, which are the coefficient of variation, the Cuddy–Della Valle Index and the Coppock Instability Index, together with a decomposition model according to Hazell’s approach for estimating the impact of area and yields on production variance. The results indicated that variability is statistically significant, with instability being highest in yield, followed by production and area. Instability also differed between the two sub-periods, 2001–2010 and 2010–2020, indicating a structural shift in the production trend. Decomposition analysis revealed that mean yield and area variation are the major contributors to production growth, while yield variance and area variance are the primary sources of instability. This study enriches the extant knowledge base by examining the instabilities in pear cultivation in Kashmir at a disaggregated district and zone level, which is relatively understudied subject in this specific context. This study also makes it explicit that yield variability constitutes one of the prominent risks associated with pear farming in Kashmir. This implies that the best way for stabilization policies is to concentrate on optimizing yields via climate-smart agriculture, proper use of inputs and effective pest control, in addition to proper management of acreage. It is vital for achieving stabilization that district-specific policies are employed to ensure sustainability.

JEL Classification: C22, Q12, Q18, Q54