Abstract
Based on a forecasting study of the geography of the European automobile industry, this paper analyses first its spatial hierarchy corresponding to a regional vertical division of labour within different countries in a centre-periphery framework. Central functions (marketing, planning, R & D, luxury and upper range car assembly, etc.) located in the 'Banane Bleue', are attracted by the centre of gravity in southern Germany, whereas peripheral functions (assembly of small cars, production of generic components) are decentralized to southern European countries, and now eastern countries. Secondly, the paper identifies factors governing its evolution: changes in production organization (technological innovation, lean production) and their impacts on the location of activities (through a desegregated approach to location constraints on different activities: assembly, manufacturing, generic and specific components, etc.), as well as the new competitive context on the European market (arrival of new competitors, reduction of overcapacity, new niches, etc.). Thirdly, a sketch of the spatial configuration of the European automobile industry in 2005 is proposed on the basis of two opposite modalities of complementary spatial dynamics: on one side, concentration versus decentralization of assembly plants; on the other side, polarization or dispersion of upstream activities. Their intersection leads to four possible scenario-configurations: agglomerated unipolar, dispersed unipolar, multipolar and continental integration. Finally, conditions which would encourage or, alternatively, impede each scenario are discussed.
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