Did Iraq expect a nuclear Desert Storm? Deterrence,paradigms,and operational culture in a weapons of mass destruction environment

Abstract

Most of the Iraqi political leadership, military, and public were convinced that there was a strong likelihood the United States would employ nuclear weapons during Desert Storm. This study examines how a combination of existing paradigms, propaganda, military doctrine, and a misunderstanding of US military and political strategy combined to predispose Iraq to expect nuclear escalation, and the impact the perceived threat had on nuclear deterrence and on Iraq’s conduct of the Gulf War. The research is based on captured Iraqi political and military documents, as well as on the Iraqi media and interviews.