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References
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1 Martin Ira Glassner, Political Geography (New York: Wiley, 1993) offers a recent update of geopolitical thinkers. In his Arthasastra , the Indian philosopher Kautilya (c. 300 BC) indicated how the position of kingdoms determines their allies and enemies: see Paul A. Seabury, ed., Balance of Power (San Francisco: Chandler, 1965), p. 8. The Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu (c. 500 BC) noted the disadvantage of a country encircled by others: see Sun Tzu, The Art of War , translated by S. B. Griffith (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1963), p. 93. Lewis Namier formulated the principle of `odd and even numbers of international politics': `my neighbor is my enemy, the neighbor of my enemy is my friend'. Lewis B. Namier, Conflicts (London: Macmillan, 1942), p. 14.
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2 Kenneth N. Waltz, `The Emerging Structure of International Politics', International Security , vol. 18, no. 2, 1993, pp. 44-79, here on p. 52.
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3 This ranking is based on GNP size measured in purchasing power parity. `Türkiye 16'inci Büyük Ekonomi', Hürriyet , 20 November 1998.
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4 `Turkey is the Front-line State on the New North-South Divide', Turkish Daily News , 31 May 1995.
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5 See Anatol Lieven, `A New Iron Curtain', Atlantic Monthly , January 1996, pp. 20-25.
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6 Saadet Oruç, `Turkey, Israel to Enhance Strategic Ties with Caucasus', Turkish Daily News , 16 March 1998.
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7 Reported in Ergun Balc1, `Suriye'ye S-300' [S-300s to Syria], Cumhuriyet , 21 May 1998.
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8 Michael Gordon, `Pipeline to Link Russia to Caspian', International Herald Tribune , 26 November 1998.
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9 See Harun Kazaz, `Missile Sale Greek Cyprus Makes Sense for Russia', Turkish Daily News , 27 June 1998.
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10 Robert Powell finds that the probability of conflict depends on how far apart are the status quo distribution of benefits and power. Robert Powell, `Stability and the Distribution of Power', World Politics , vol. 48, no. 2, 1996, pp. 239-267.
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11 Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1997), p. 143.
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12 Hakan Aksay, `BDT Dosyas1' [CIS File], Cumhuriyet , 22 December 1997.
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13 Another pipeline carrying gas from Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Georgia will be constructed by 2001 with financial help of the World Bank and the US Export-Import Bank. The option of gas transport from Turkmenistan to Pakistan has been dropped because of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan.
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14 Reuters, `Black Sea Gaspipe Start Seen In Autumn', 24 March 1999.
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15 Dan Morgan & David B. Ottaway, `U.S.-Russian Rivalry Flares Over Kazakh Oil', International Herald Tribune , 7 October 1998.
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16 David Kramer, `A Pipeline Fixation Distorts U.S. Policy on Caspian Affairs', International Herald Tribune , 4 December 1998.
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17 Morgan & Ottaway, see note 15 above.
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18 On the problems created by NATO enlargement see Ali L. Karaosmano glu, `NATO Enlargement and the South: A Turkish Perspective', Security Dialogue , vol. 30, no. 2, June 1999, pp. 213-224.
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19 Heinz Kramer, A Changing Turkey: The Challenge to Europe and the US (Washington DC: Brookings Institute, forthcoming).
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20 China has plans for an oil pipeline stretching from Kazakhstan-Russia frontier at Aktyubinsk and Uzen to its territory. Jan Kalicki, `U.S. Policy in the Caspian: Pipelines, Partnership and Prosperity', Middle East Policy , vol. 6, no. 2, October 1998, pp. 145-149, on p. 145.
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21 John Pomfret, `Weapons Sales Rekindle China-Russian Relations', International Herald Tribune , 21-22 November 1998.
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22 Halford Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality (New York: Henry Holt, 1919).
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23 Michael Klare, `New American Military Strategy', Le Monde Diplomatique , November 1997.