Nuclear Forces in South Asia

1 Hasan Akhtar, `First Strike: No Change in Pakistan's Nuclear Strategy', Dawn, 20 June 1999.

2 Subramaniam Swamy, `India's Defense Needs', The Hindustan Times, 12 July 1998; Bharat Karnad, `A Thermonuclear Deterrent', in Amitabh Mattoo, ed., India's Nuclear Deterrent: Pokhran II and Beyond (New Delhi: Har-Anand, 1998), pp. 128, 139.

3 John Cherian, `The Arms Race', Frontline, vol. 16, no. 9, 24 April-7 May 1999.

4 Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, `Equipping the Navy for War on Land', The Times of India, 13 July 1998.

5 R. Ramachandran, `Pakistan's Ballistic Response', Frontline, vol. 16, no. 9, 24 April-7 May 1999; Ben Sheppard, `News in Brief: Pakistan Ready to Test New Solid-Fuel SSM', Jane's Intelligence Review, vol. 11, no. 1, January 1999, p. 4.

6 Umer Farooq, `Pakistan Needs up to 70 Nuclear Warheads', Jane's Defence Weekly, 10 June 1998, p. 3.

7 Jyoti Malhotra, `China's No Threat: Talks Clear Air', The Indian Express, 16 June 1999.

8 Cherian, note 3 above.

9 Indian defense expenditure declined from 3.3% of GDP in 1987 to 2.4% in 1992 and 1993, but rose to 2.8% in 1995 and 3.3% in 1996 and 1997. In the case of Pakistan, expenditure went from 8% in 1987 to 7.4% in 1993, then rebounded to an estimated 8% in 1995, but declined to 5.9% in 1996 and 5.8% in 1997. See SIPRI Yearbook 1997 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 203; The Military Balance 1998/99 (London: Oxford University Press for the International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1998), p. 297.

10 India increased its defense budget to approximately $11 billion for 1999-2000, while Pakistan raised its defense budget to approximately $3 billion. See www.cbr.gov.pk/Budget for Pakistan's budget, and www.indiamap.com/government for that of India.

11 Subramaniam Swamy, `India's Defense Needs', The Hindustan Times, 12 July 1998.

12 Jayati Ghosh, `The Bomb and the Economy', Frontline, vol. 16, no. 10, 8-21 May 1999.

13 Manzur Ejaz, `Redefining State Priorities', The News (Pakistan), 3 August 1998.

14 Maleeha Lodhi, `Testing Times for Pakistan's Nuclear Diplomacy', The News (Pakistan), 30 July 1998.

15 Molly Moore, `Bomb Tests Wound Indian Economy', The Washington Post, 20 June 1998.

16 Statement by Dr. Bimal Jalan, Governor, Reserve Bank of India on Monetary and Credit Policy for the Year 1999-2000, 20 April 1999 (available at http://www.rbi.org.in/index.dll/70). Recent Indian reports, however, suggest that foreign institutional investment is on the rebound and actually growing. See, `FII Investments Reach All Time High of 9.5 billion US dollars', The Financial Express, 24 June 1999.

17 Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, `Equipping the Navy for War on Land', The Times of India, 13 July 1998; `India Buckles, Test-Firing of Agni Put Off Indefinitely', The Hindustan Times, 21 January 1999.

18 `India Set to Test Fire Long-Range Agni II', The Hindustan Times, 27 December 1998.

19 Dinshaw Mistry, `India's Emerging Space Program', Pacific Affairs, vol. 71, no. 2, Summer 1998, p. 164.

20 `Fernandes: U.S. Nuclear Policy is Hypocritical', The Hindustan Times, 19 June 1998.

21 K. Subrahmanyam, `Past Imperfect: Time for New Nuclearspeak', The Times of India, 3 August 1998.

22 The entire memorandum is available on the Indian Ministry of External Affairs website, The Lahore Declaration (http://www.meadev.gov.in/govt/lahore.htm).

23 Kenneth J. Cooper, `India, Pakistan Agree to Work to Ease Strains', The Washington Post, 22 February 1999.

24 Amit Baruah, The South Asian Nuclear Mess, Frontline, vol. 16, no. 10, 8-21 May 1999.

25 Cooper, note 23 above.

26 Harinder Baweja & Raj Chengappa, `From Breakdown to Détente and Entente Cordiale', India Today, 1 March 1999.

27 When conducting missile tests in April 1999, India postponed testing the shorter-range Dhanush missile because it could be perceived as targeted against Pakistan. See Cherian, note 3 above.

28 Jim Hoagland, `India: The Nuclear Challenge', The Washington Post, 21 February 1999.

29 For a detailed discussion of Washington's position see the interview with US Ambassador to India, Richard Celeste, `Foreign Panorama: Waiting for the Take-Off', The Hindu, 28 January 1999.

30 T. Jayaraman, `Nuclear Issues: A Destabilizing Misadventure', Frontline, vol. 16, no. 4, 13-26 February 1999.

31 `Celeste Defends Demand on Deterrence', The Hindu, 23 January 1999.

32 Strobe Talbott, `Dealing With the Bomb in South Asia', Foreign Affairs, vol. 78, no. 2, March/April 1999, pp. 119-120.

33 `US Denies Reports on Move to Lift Sanctions Against India', Deccan Herald, 24 January 1999.

34 Cooper, note 23 above.

35 Achin Vanaik, `The BJP's Calculations', The Hindu, 30 July 1998.

36 Amit Gupta, `Determining India's Force Structure and Military Doctrine: I Want My MiG', Asian Survey, vol. 35, no. 5, May 1995, p. 456.

37 Samina Ahmed & David Cortright, `Sanctions, Modify Them', The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 54, no. 5, September/October 1998, pp. 22-24.

38 Sisir Gupta, `The Indian Dilemma', in Alastair Buchan, ed., A World of Nuclear Powers (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1966), on p. 67.